They’ll tell you the NBA’s Most Valuable Player Award has been decided. They’ll tell you Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the prodigious and remarkable engine behind the Oklahoma City Thunder, is a shoo-in. They’ll tell you SGA’s literal odds, a rising voter fatigue, the force of narrative and the power of his team’s winning ways has set this thing in stone.
But a survey of likely voters and conversation with those across the NBA — former players, all-time greats, GMs, scouts — delivered a fascinating reality: This race between SGA and Nuggets superstar Nikola Jokić is wide open, and those of us that get to choose will have an excruciating decision to make in the coming weeks.
Several media members and NBA bigwigs were flummoxed when pressed to choose, if the vote were today, between the two players.
Don’t misunderstand. There is not a trace of disrespect or doubt about SGA’s stunning season and rock-solid MVP résumé. He’s a superstar, whose league-leading 33 points per game, defensive excellence, exceptional leadership and status as the centerpiece of an OKC team running away with the West make him a wholly worthy favorite.
Vegas certainly thinks so. Sportsbooks have him at a whopping -850 to win MVP. The general narrative out there — and those can take on lives of their own — also unrelentingly pushes the notion that the hardware will surely, undoubtedly, irrevocably go Shai’s way.
Even a straw poll by ESPN last month that had SGA as the favorite serves as an oft-cited bit of evidence that it’s going to be the OKC point guard who hoists the hardware. But things change fast in the NBA.
I have an official vote this year and am currently leaning toward Jokić. Vegas may currently put his odds at either 4-to-1 or 5-to-1 to win, but that just feels off — and somehow out of touch with the vibe inside the league.
“Are you kidding me?” one likely voter told me. “This thing is so close it’s painful.”
This race feels like a dead heat.
For starters, a smaller quick survey of CBSSports.com writers this week had Jokić ahead, 5-2. My colleague James Herbert, who also has an official vote, also leans Jokić and, like me, would vote for him if that decision were due now.
Conversations with other NBA media members who are likely to vote for the award this year revealed a similar reality: A brutally close vote, a headache-inducing choice between two players who each deserve this award, and a sense of exasperation and confusion that so many, Vegas included, think this thing is already decided. Many leaned SGA. But almost as many, when pushed, went the other way.
Jokić, too, is having a career year — quite a statement given he’s already won this thing three times. He’s averaging 29, 13 and 10. Those are career highs in points and assists per game for a three-time MVP. Ditto his 3-point shooting percentage and 3-point assists per game, 41.3% and 4.6, respectively.
Oh, and the 50/40/80 seasons he’s on track for would be the first and only of his career, another wow-what-a-season statistical eyebrow-raiser.
Both SGA and Jokić should, were it not for the other, win this year’s award. Only one can. And either might, depending on an array of factors and the still-evolving contours of a race as close and hard to judge as any in recent memory.
That sense was driven home in conversations with others across the NBA community about this year’s MVP showdown.
Here’s a sampling of those talks, all of which underscores the degree of difficulty in choosing between SGA and Jokić, the different ways different people in the league view the award, and the fact this thing is wide open.
A Current NBA GM
“For me, I probably tend to lean into winning. And your impact on winning. And so to me both are MVP candidates, both have had an MVP season, and it’s not to say one is an MVP and one is not. But if I had an actual vote I would give it to Shai, because they have won at a much higher level. And winning at that level matters, and I’m going to give an edge to the winning. And that, to me, has Shai as the MVP.”
NBA Executive
“I will say this: Shai has a lot more help. I get the voter fatigue around Nikola, I do, but the Nuggets aren’t a play-in team without Nikola Jokić. The Thunder are still housing people without Shai. I’d vote for Jokić.”
Hall Of Fame Player
“You know, this is a tough one because — Christ,” he said, laughing. “This is hard. OK. I’ve said this before: There’s no one who’s playing better basketball than Joker. He’s playing the best basketball. The ‘but’ is Shai is playing great too and OKC is kicking everyone’s ass — that winning factor.
“You’d have to lean toward SGA from a winning perspective, and toward Joker from a basketball perspective. There’s also the fatigue thing. This happened with [Karl] Malone and [Michael] Jordan — people got tired of voting for Jordan and went, ‘Let’s go Malone.’ That could be happening again.”
He paused.
“That said,” he went on, laughing. “Shit, this is hard! OKC is winning, and they’re winning because of SGA.”
Another pause.
“I think you go SGA.”
He paused again. You could almost hear the hedge.
“It really is 50-50. You can’t go wrong with either.”
Former NBA Player
“I think a lot of people have already made up their minds. SGA has been the most consistent all year long. But I’m not one for voter fatigue. Best player is the best damn player. Period. But this year is tough, man. When Joker did 30-20-21, I was like, ‘Jesus, man, are you kidding?’ And if I had a vote? Geeeeeez.”
He thought it over.
“Man. Man. I think I’m voting Joker.”
NBA Scout
“Joker. Close though. Really close. No one in the league makes bad players good, or good players great, more than Jokić. He’s like LeBron when he was winning these things. That’s not Shai. He’s great, amazing. But he’s going to go out and get his. He’s may be even a better player than Jokić this year. But he doesn’t lift that team as much as Jokić does.”
And on and on it goes. SGA just over Jokić. No, Jokić just over SGA. Or maybe the other way around? Who can know? It’s so close.
One thing, and maybe only one thing about this MVP race, is clear: The closing few weeks will be critical in a contest between two remarkable players having remarkable seasons in which every twist, turn, and eye-popping performance could end up making the difference.
