Speaking of that match with Fils, it’s hard not to think Rune can do everything the Frenchman did to bother Medvedev. Fils’ serve is a little bigger than Rune’s, but both players are extremely athletic and have a ton of power from the baseline. Both can hang in long, extended rallies that Medvedev prefers, but they can also go big and really push the Russian around. And Rune has more game than Fils. Not only does he have the power, but he has excellent touch on drop shots and knows when to come to the net to finish points. He also happens to be one of the few players in the world that might have a better backhand than Medvedev.
Rune will have to be disciplined on return. That’s a part of his game that has been somewhat disappointing early in his career, and he needs to be ready to capitalize on Medvedev’s service lulls. But Rune’s break percentage is up at 21.9% this year, which is the highest it has been since 2022. He’s clearly making some strides there.
I honestly view this as a match that Rune can win outright, but I’m taking the set play because the 21-year-old has thrown away some sets this week. I’m not sure he’d be able to survive doing that against a player of Medvedev’s caliber, but I’d also be stunned if he doesn’t at least force a decider.
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As for the other match, it’s a little more straightforward. I’m not willing to lay any games or back Alcaraz to win in straight sets, as I have way too much respect for Draper’s talent. The Brit has arrived as a Top 10 player, and he isn’t going anywhere. However, I like the Spaniard to find a way to prevail, as this has arguably been Alcaraz’s best tournament early in his career. The court speeds give him time to run down every ball. He also gets more time to get returns back in play. On top of that, his big, heavy baseline shots—especially the topspin forehands—are incredibly effective in high-bouncing conditions. In the end, that should be enough for him to beat Draper, especially with the Brit still needing to do a little work on the forehand wing.
PARLAY: Rune +1.5 Sets & Alcaraz ML (+100)
