This matchup spells all kinds of trouble for Medvedev, whose serve quality has dipped in recent seasons: From 2020 to 2022, Medvedev had a hold percentage of at least 86.3%. Medvedev is currently holding at 84.5%—a big jump from 80.1% last year. Meanwhile, over the last 52 weeks, Paul has the fourth-highest break percentage on the ATP Tour. And if you break that down to just hard courts, he’s actually tied with Medvedev for the third-highest.
Paul shouldn’t have a lot of problems consistently getting deep in Medvedev’s surface games. The American can grind for days from the baseline, so Medvedev’s normal strategy from the back of the court probably won’t work. The Russian likes to get everything back in play and wait out errors from opponents, but he might not get many out of Paul. The American’s biggest weakness is his forehand, but the slower courts in Indian Wells give him the time he needs to set his feet and rip that shot. Paul should even like his chances in backhand-to-backhand exchanges with Medvedev. Not many players have the ability to do that, but Paul’s backhand is elite.
It’s also just hard to ignore the general vibes entering this match. Paul has been the better player to start 2025, winning 12 matches and having more success at the Australian Open. Medvedev has won only 10 matches and did some of that work in Marseille, which is a lower-level tournament that he played to pick up some confidence. Confidence and form definitely favor Paul heading into this one. On top of that, Paul will have the Indian Wells crowd eating out of the palm of his hand. That should give him some added adrenaline, and it could also get into Medvedev’s head.
Pick: Paul ML (+110)
