Hubert Hurkacz defeated Alex de Minaur the last time they played, 6-3, 6-4, but that was all the way back in 2019. Fast-forward to 2025, and this feels like a nightmare of a match-up for the Pole, and that’s especially true when talking about playing at Indian Wells. The conditions at the BNP Paribas Open favor returners quite a bit, and de Minaur is one of the best on the planet. I’m thinking the Australian should be able to cover a 2.5-game spread in the desert.
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Hurkacz possesses one of the biggest serves on the ATP Tour, and his ability to bomb the ball and rack up easy holds is the reason he has been as high as No. 6 in the rankings. However, these courts really slow the ball down upon bouncing, so Hurkacz’s serve will be neutralized a bit. We saw that in his match against Hugo Gaston: the Frenchman wasn’t able to break through and take advantage of it, but he consistently put Hurkacz under pressure. Well, de Minaur has the second-highest break percentage in the men’s game over the last 52 weeks. He gets his racquet on everything, so he should be able to come away with a key break or two here.
