On Sunday, March 9, 17-year-old sensation Mirra Andreeva will take on Clara Tauson at Indian Wells. This is a rematch of last week’s Dubai final, which Andreeva won her first career 1000-level title. That 7-6 (1), 6-1 match was somewhat interesting, as Tauson was clearly running on fumes late in the opening set. That then spilled over and made for an uncompetitive second set. I don’t see fatigue or poor health getting in Tauson’s way this time around. However, I do like Andreeva to cover the game spread.
I’m not sure I see Andreeva winning this match in straight sets, as Tauson is a highly talented player. However, these conditions should really favor Andreeva, and I’d be surprised if we don’t see at least one lopsided set. That should be enough for Andreeva to cover a pretty small, 3.5-game number.
Tauson relies so much on her big serve and her ability to crunch winners while standing with somewhat flat feet. However, the slow, gritty courts at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden require some mobility and variety. Andreeva should have an easier time than normal returning Tauson’s serves and tracking down some of her heavy groundstrokes. Once she does that and eventually resets points, things are going to favor her quite a bit. Tauson wants to win points in the 0-4 shot range, but Andreeva is going to actively look to extend rallies, and should have success doing so.
