The Dallas Mavericks and Miami Heat are the NBA Finals losers from the last two seasons, and both franchises are going in new directions after trading away Luka Doncic and Jimmy Butler, respectively, at the NBA trade deadline. On Thursday, the two teams will go head-to-head in a West vs. East matchup before the 2025 NBA All-Star break. The Mavericks will host and are 29-26 on the season (eighth in the West), while the Heat are 25-27 overall (eighth in the East).
Tipoff from the American Airlines Center in Dallas is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET on Thursday. Miami is listed as a 1.5-point favorite in the latest Mavericks vs. Heat odds, per SportsLine consensus, and the over/under is 221 points. Before you make any Heat vs. Mavericks picks, you’ll want to see the NBA predictions from the advanced computer model at SportsLine.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. The model enters Week 17 of the 2024-25 NBA season on a sizzling 147-104 roll on all top-rated NBA picks dating back to last season, returning nearly $4,000. It’s also an outstanding 18-9 (67%) on top-rated spread picks this season. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.
The model has set its sights on Dallas vs. Miami. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several NBA betting lines for Heat vs. Mavs:
- Mavericks vs. Heat spread: Dallas +1.5
- Mavericks vs. Heat over/under: 221 points
- Mavericks vs. Heat money line: Dallas -100, Miami -120
- Mavericks vs. Heat picks: See picks at SportsLine
- Mavericks vs. Heat streaming: FuboTV (Try for free)
Why the Mavericks can cover
The centerpiece of the return for Doncic was nine-time NBA All-Star Anthony Davis, but the former Lakers and Pelicans star had to exit the second half of his first game with a groin injury and is expected to miss several weeks. However, that didn’t stop the Mavs from pulling off a 111-107 win over the Golden State Warriors as 7.5-point home underdogs on Wednesday night.
The victory was also the fifth time in a row that Dallas has covered the spread, and the franchise has also won and covered in six of 10 against Miami. Kyrie Irving had 42 points and seven rebounds in the win over Golden State and will continue to carry a heavy load with the Mavericks dealing with seven players on the injury report. See which team to back at SportsLine.
Why the Heat can cover
Meanwhile, the Heat enter Thursday’s contest on a three-game losing streak after suffering a 115-101 defeat at the hands of the Oklahoma City Thunder on Wednesday. Bam Adebayo stood out with 27 points and 15 rebounds in the loss, but Miami struggled from beyond the arc, going 11-for-34 from the 3-point line.
Adebayo also posted a double-double in an overtime win over the Mavericks in November. He had 19 points, 11 rebounds and five assists in the 123-118 victory as 3-point home favorites. Miami has won five games in a row against Southwest Division opponents. See which team to back at SportsLine.
How to make Mavericks vs. Heat picks
The model has simulated Miami vs. Dallas 10,000 times and the results are in. The model is leaning Under, projecting 213 combined points, and it’s also generated a point-spread pick where one side hits well over 60% of the time. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Heat vs. Mavs, and which side of the spread hits well over 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Mavs vs. Heat spread you need to jump on, all from the model that is on a 147-104 roll on top-rated NBA picks since last season, and find out.
