Luka Doncic, a Laker. Anthony Davis to the Mavericks. Jimmy Butler’s a Warrior. Kevin Durant almost got moved. And so on — a nonstop flurry of trades, rumors, and recalibrations and oh-my-God-really moments that made this NBA trade deadline the most interesting in league history.
“That,” one executive wrote to CBS Sports after the deadline finally slammed shut Thursday, “was insane.”
It is also unlikely to be the pattern going forward, so best to have enjoyed the mania while it lasted.
That’s because the sense across the league is that, for a variety of reasons, future NBA trade deadlines won’t be as much fun as this one.
“No, I don’t think so,” one Eastern Conference general manager said when asked if this was the start of a pattern of trade deadline madness. “Many of these were more (about adjusting to moves from) the CBA from the last time. I don’t think there’s a huge change going on.”
In fact, many of the executives who were behind some of these deals over the last few days said their actions and those of their colleagues were less about a lasting change and more the product of several factors coalescing all at once:
- The rarity of having closing windows for two all-time greats like Steph Curry and LeBron James, fuel for those two teams to be particularly active.
- Nico Harrisons, as one put it, are in short supply.
- The learning curve for front offices about the impact and peculiarities of the new CBA will fade as time goes on.
That learning curve was clear on both ends of the spectrum, both for teams in second-apron hell and those, especially smaller markets, who have learned that building a winner with this CBA means having some long-term patience.
For the latter approach, several people mentioned Charlotte as a prime example of how this deadline saw players move out as such teams rethink their medium- and long-term plan.
Oklahoma City Thunder general manager Sam Presti clearly grasped what the new rules would mean for team building, the need for flexibility, and the value of a bevy of assets and team-friendly contracts for important players.
The Rockets and Spurs have since pursued a similar course. The Brooklyn Nets are following suit. And so are the Hornets, who may have been lambasted for their deal sending Mark Williams to the Lakers at the deadline, but they’ve positioned themselves nicely for a rebuild fine-tuned for how those things now work.
The aprons will also be the tails that wag the dog in the NBA, several executives said, and some of these high-profile moves — or those that nearly happened — were viewed as adjustments by front offices coming to grips with the dangers of spending too much and still struggling.
“The aggregation of salaries and other restrictions in the aprons is a game-changer,” a third executive said.
That means the future is likely to be pushed more by moving under aprons if expensive gambles like we’ve seen in Phoenix or Milwaukee don’t work, rather than the surety of big names like Doncic, Anthony Davis, De’Aaron Fox, Jimmy Butler and, nearly Kevin Durant moving each year.
“No, not more big trades, I just think this CBA probably will push more three-team trades being norms, especially when doing apron trades,” the third executive added. “It used to be where, ‘If you had a three-team trade, you had no trade.’ But now you need them if there’s an apron team involved.”
“You will see teams try to dip into the second apron for only a year or two, and then try to get out,” the Eastern Conference GM said.
This deadline, then, was about several factors hitting at once.
The Suns nearly shipped out Durant because, it turned out, that second apron — especially given the no-trade clause they’d allowed to remain in place when the acquired Bradley Beal — was a hard cap that trapped them in their own self-inflicted mess.
Teams are likely to see their decision making with horror and mockery and be more careful going forward.
In fact, Phoenix’s decision to send out Jusuf Nurkic was about the chance to get under the second apron this summer. The Milwaukee Bucks moved on from Khris Middleton for similar reasons, getting under the second apron despite the return of Kyle Kuzma not exactly being a game-changer.
The Doncic-AD trade seems to largely come down to Harrison inexplicably dealing one of the game’s only transcendent young stars for a very, very poor return.
Jimmy Butler going to the Miami Heat was born out of the desperation the Warriors have to try and squeeze a few more years out of Steph Curry’s remaining championship window.
And the Fox move to Spurs, with Lavine taking his place in Sacramento, was largely about Fox’s agent coming to grips with the new CBA and acting accordingly.
While big deals will continue, this trade deadline was probably particularly frantic because all of these things happened at once — juiced, for now, by front offices learning as they go how this CBA will affect things.
Everything executives think they now know about how their jobs will operate under these new rules leads them to believe we won’t be lucky enough to sit back and take in trade deadlines like this one each year.
But, as one put it while making this point but then looking back again at the shock of the Doncic-AD trade: Nothing that happens ever again at the NBA trade deadline should be that surprising.
