Shock waves continue to reverberate around the NBA after the Los Angeles Lakers acquired Luka Doncic late Saturday night in exchange for Anthony Davis in what feels like the most shocking trade in NBA history.
Maybe that’s recency bias. I’m sure some old schoolers are going to point to the Bucks sending Kareem Abdul-Jabbar to, go figure, the Lakers in 1975, but it is such a different news world these days. There’s simply no way to register the shock of this Doncic deal. It’s truly off the scale.
And these are the shock waves that have big ramifications in Las Vegas. People hear big names and get caught up in the energy of Luka Doncic and LeBron James and believe in (and bet on) the Lakers as if they’re suddenly a superteam.
That’s why the Lakers’ 2025 championship odds on FanDuel have gone from +4000 before the trade to +1800 after the trade. That means had you bet a hundred dollars on the Lakers to win the title early in the day on Saturday, you would’ve been in line to make $400 profit if that miracle actually happened. If you put that same $100 down on Sunday morning, you are now only in line to make $180 profit.
But in fact, it’s the Mavericks who should be getting the most action. I suspect the smart bettors agree with me. People think the Mavericks got screwed in this deal, and long term they absolutely did. But short term? That’s a different story. I genuinely believe they are better positioned to win a title this season with Anthony Davis than they were with Doncic, and yet the odds have gone the other way.
Before the trade, the Mavericks were +2000 to win this year’s title, meaning if you bet a hundred you were in line to win $200. Post-trade, the Mavericks have dropped to +3500, meaning that same $100 bet will now pay you out $350 if Dallas hoists the trophy.
That’s a lot of added value for a team that now has an incredible inside-out one-two punch of Kyrie Irving and Davis and that will be an even bigger defensive monster with three seven footers in Davis (maybe the best defender in the league not named Victor Wembanyama when he’s right), Dereck Lively II and Daniel Gafford. They can play two-big lineups with AD at the four or ride a ton of big-man depth that other teams can’t match.
Offensively, Kyrie is having another incredible season and AD fits with him as a pick-and-roll/pop partner fantastically. Not to mention the shooting AD now has around him with Irving, Klay Thompson, Quentin Grimes and PJ Washington.
SportsLine projections agree with me, saying the Mavericks’ chances of winning the 2025 title have risen from 1.31% before the trade to 4.85% after the trade, while the Lakers’ (already miniscule) chances have shrunk.
SportsLine’s 2025 post-Luka trade forecast
|
Mavericks |
3.91% |
11.91% |
+8% |
1.31% |
4.16% |
+2.85% |
|
Lakers |
0.79% |
0.06% |
-0.73% |
0.17% |
0.01% |
-0.16% |
Do what you want with your money, but be advised: The Mavericks are a better team than the Lakers today even if they never should’ve made this trade in the big picture. You are getting free value on Dallas here. It’s not a suggestion that the Mavericks are going to win the title, but the risk/reward ratio just swung heavily in the favor. For the Lakers, despite the urge to ride the big names, it went the other way. Don’t be a sucker. Bet accordingly.
