Dropping just one set to reach the championship match—in the quarterfinals against Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova—Sabalenka was the oddsmaker’s favorite to win another Australian Open title against Keys, whom she led 4-1 in their head-to-head.
But Keys, who has challenged Sabalenka in the past, most notably in a 2023 US Open semifinal where she led 6-0, 5-3 before falling in a final-set tiebreaker, is in the midst of a career renaissance after spending the off-season switching racquets and tweaking her already-formidable serve motion. The small improvements yielded a spectacular start to the new season, one that saw the recently-married American win a title of her own in Adelaide and reach her first Grand Slam final since the 2017 US Open. To get there, she scored an emotional victory over former world No. 1 Iga Swiatek, rallying from match point down to shock her longtime nemesis in the semifinals.
In her 46th major main-draw appearance, Keys met the challenge of facing the world’s Top 2 players in the biggest matches of her life with remarkable poise. As the championship match got underway, she broke Sabalenka twice to race ahead, 5-1, in the opening set.
Sabalenka, who has been 33-1 in Australia since the beginning of 2023, saved a set point to begin clawing her way into the match. Keys would take the set two games later with a backhand down the line, but Sabalenka began the second in much better stead, saving three break points to consolidate a 5-1, double-break advantage of her own.
