History of 14 vs. 3 seeds in March MadnessHow much more likely is a 14-3 upset than a 15-2 upset?How much more likely is a 13-4 upset than a 14-3 upset?History of 2 seeds vs. 15 seeds in March MadnessHistory of 1 seed vs. 16 seed in March MadnessThe Division I men’s basketball teams with the most NCAA tournament No. 1 seeds
Twenty-three No. 14 seeds have shocked a No. 3 in men’s NCAA tournament play, with Oakland becoming the most recent surprise in the 2024 tournament, when the Golden Grizzlies stunned Kentucky, 80-76. While 3s have generally had their way with 14s since the NCAA tournament expanded in 1985, the lower seed has won enough to catch our attention.
Here’s everything you need to know about 14 seeds vs. 3 seeds in March Madness.
History of 14 vs. 3 seeds in March Madness
Twenty-three No. 14 seeds have upset 3 seeds since 1985, giving them a 23-133 record all-time. That equates to a 14.74 win percentage.
Here are all of the times it’s ever happened.
| Year | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1986 | Cleveland State def. Indiana | 83-79 |
| 1986 | Arkansas Little-Rock def. Notre Dame | 90-83 |
| 1987 | Austin Peay def. Illinois | 68-67 |
| 1988 | Murray State def. NC State | 78-75 |
| 1989 | Siena def. Stanford | 80-78 |
| 1990 | Northern Iowa def. Missouri | 74-71 |
| 1991 | Xavier def. Nebraska | 89-84 |
| 1992 | ETSU def. Arizona | 87-80 |
| 1995 | Old Dominion def. Villanova | 89-81 |
| 1995 | Weber State def. Michigan State | 79-72 |
| 1997 | Chattanooga def. Georgia | 73-70 |
| 1998 | Richmond def. South Carolina | 62-61 |
| 1999 | Weber State def. North Carolina | 76-74 |
| 2005 | Bucknell def. Kansas | 64-63 |
| 2006 | Northwestern State def. Iowa | 64-63 |
| 2010 | Ohio def. Georgetown | 97-83 |
| 2013 | Harvard def. New Mexico | 68-62 |
| 2014 | Mercer def. Duke | 78-71 |
| 2015 | UAB def. Iowa State | 60-59 |
| 2015 | Georgia State def. Baylor | 57-56 |
| 2016 | Stephen F. Austin def. West Virginia | 70-56 |
| 2021 | Abilene Christian def. Texas | 53-52 |
| 2024 | Oakland def. Kentucky | 80-76 |
Some more tidbits:
- In 20 of the 39 tournaments since the field expanded to 64 teams, at least one No. 14 seed has triumphed over a No. 3 seed.
- Only two 14 seeds have ever advanced past the second round: 1986 Cleveland State and 1997 Chattanooga.
- No. 14 seeds are 12-9 in matches decided by three points or fewer. Three of the last five 14-over-3 upsets (Georgia State over Baylor and UAB over Iowa State in 2015, Abilene Christian over Texas in 2021) were decided by one point.
- The biggest upset in a 14 vs. 3 game — 14 points — is tied between SFA’s win in 2016 and when Ohio topped Georgetown 97-83 in 2010.
- Only one 14-3 upset has gone to overtime. That was Old Dominion-Villanova in 1995, which required three extra sessions.
- A 14 seed beat a 3 seed for seven straight years between 1986-92. That streak was snapped in 1993.
- There was a four-year stretch between 2013-16 where a 14 seed upset a 3.
- No school that’s earned a 3 seed has lost to a 14 seed more than once. On the flip side, Weber State has won two opening round games as a 14 seed: 1995 vs. Michigan State and 1999 vs. North Carolina.
How much more likely is a 14-3 upset than a 15-2 upset?
A 14-3 upset is two times more likely than a 15-2 upset. Eleven 15 seeds have pulled off the upset since 1985.
Here’s the full list:
| Year | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1991 | Richmond def. Syracuse | 73-69 |
| 1993 | Santa Clara def. Arizona | 64-61 |
| 1997 | Coppin State def. South Carolina | 78-65 |
| 2001 | Hampton def. Iowa State | 58-57 |
| 2012 | Lehigh def. Duke | 75-70 |
| 2012 | Norfolk State def. Missouri | 86-84 |
| 2013 | Florida Gulf Coast def. Georgetown | 78-68 |
| 2016 | Middle Tennessee def. Michigan State | 90-81 |
| 2021 | Oral Roberts def. Ohio State | 75-72 (OT) |
| 2022 | Saint Peter’s def. Kentucky | 85-79 (OT) |
| 2023 | Princeton def. Arizona | 59-55 |
How much more likely is a 13-4 upset than a 14-3 upset?
Teams on the 13 seed line have 33 wins in the opening round, meaning it’s happened 10 more times than the 14-over-3 variety. Here’s the full list of 13s that have topped 4s:
| Year | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1985 | Navy def. LSU | 78-55 |
| 1987 | Missouri State def. Clemson | 65-60 |
| 1987 | Xavier def. Missouri | 70-69 |
| 1988 | Richmond def. Indiana | 72-69 |
| 1989 | Middle Tennessee def. Florida State | 97-83 |
| 1991 | Penn State def. UCLA | 74-69 |
| 1992 | Southwestern Louisiana def. Oklahoma | 87-83 |
| 1993 | Southern def. Georgia Tech | 93-78 |
| 1995 | Manhattan def. Oklahoma | 77-67 |
| 1996 | Princeton def. UCLA | 43-41 |
| 1998 | Valparaiso def. Ole Miss | 70-69 |
| 1999 | Oklahoma def. Arizona | 61-60 |
| 2001 | Indiana State def. Oklahoma | 70-68 |
| 2001 | Kent State def. Indiana | 77-73 |
| 2002 | UNC Wilmington def. USC | 93-89 |
| 2003 | Tulsa def. Dayton | 84-71 |
| 2005 | Vermont def. Syracuse | 60-57 |
| 2006 | Bradley def. Kansas | 77-73 |
| 2008 | Siena def. Vanderbilt | 83-62 |
| 2008 | San Diego def. UConn | 70-69 |
| 2009 | Cleveland State def. Wake Forest | 84-69 |
| 2010 | Murray State def. Vanderbilt | 66-65 |
| 2011 | Morehead State def. Louisville | 62-61 |
| 2012 | Ohio def. Michigan | 65-60 |
| 2013 | La Salle def. Kansas State | 63-61 |
| 2016 | Hawaii def. California | 77-66 |
| 2018 | Buffalo def. Arizona | 89-69 |
| 2018 | Marshall def. Wichita State | 81-75 |
| 2019 | UC Irvine def. Kansas State | 70-64 |
| 2021 | North Texas def. Purdue | 78-69 (OT) |
| 2021 | Ohio def. Virginia | 62-58 |
| 2023 | Furman def. Virginia | 68-67 |
| 2024 | Yale def. Auburn | 78-76 |
