Let’s also consider Zverev’s play against an injured Djokovic in the semis. Sure, the German was able to pull out the first-set tiebreaker, but Djokovic was barely moving at that point. Zverev had multiple chances to break earlier in the set, and should have won it convincingly. But he continues to play conservative tennis when the stakes are highest, and you simply can’t beat elite players if you’re not willing to take chances. It’s perplexing that Zverev can’t ignore his instincts and swing big. He hasn’t won majors playing the way he always plays—why not change it up?
All in all, I don’t see many clear advantages for Zverev in this matchup, and Sinner has the big-match experience required to block out the noise and focus on playing his best tennis. Nerves will be a factor for Zverev. The only thing I’m even remotely worried about with this pick is Sinner’s body holding up. Zverev can grind opponents down, and Sinner was cramping up against Shelton. The Italian needed a few bottles of pickle juice after the first two sets.
But if Sinner can get himself right, he should be able to win this event for the second year in a row, moving to three career Grand Slams. And he’ll be highly motivated to do just that, as we have no idea what might be coming this summer as we approach the outcome of his doping case.
Pick: Sinner -1.5 Sets (-136)
