Bencic is already 6-3 this season, and one of those wins was a straight-set victory over Jelena Ostapenko in the first round. She’s in very good form at the moment, and that dates back to a run to a WTA 125 final in December. Bencic is taking her return very seriously, playing as much tennis as she possibly can. And she really doesn’t look like she is struggling to reach her best level whatsoever. So, at plus-money odds, she’s worth a play to beat Osaka.
This happens to be a head-to-head matchup that has gone well for Bencic in the past—she is 3-1 in WTA-level meetings with Osaka. Those wins also happened to come in big events: at Indian Wells, Madrid and the US Open.
The reason Bencic has had some success against Osaka is that she’s a great on-court thinker. Sure, Bencic is capable of ripping winners and playing aggressive tennis, but she’s also good at redirecting pace, showing off her variety and just remaining unpredictable. Meanwhile, Osaka tends to stick to her fastball, looking to overpower opponents.
