Australian Open Fades
Jasmine Paolini (33-1): Paolini’s 2024 season was spectacular. She went from a mid-tier player to a mainstay deep in the biggest tournaments, and her runner-up finishes at Roland Garros and Wimbledon were extremely impressive. But Paolini could have a hard time matching her success in 2025. She’s no longer a player that people are overlooking, and there’s going to be signifcant pressure on her for the first time in her career. I was also somewhat underwhelmed by her performance at the year-end finals, and she won just four games against Muchova at the United Cup last week. That said, it just wouldn’t shock me if she were to go out a little early. She didn’t have much of an offseason, either.
Naomi Osaka (40-1): Osaka has won this tournament twice in her career, and she made some strides throughout 2024 in attempting to return to her championship form. Osaka also played well in Auckland to start the 2025 season. The problem is that Osaka had to retire in the finals of that tournament, and she was winning that match. That means she must have really been going through it. It’s a hard to imagine her being at 100% after that. And Osaka still must improve as both a returner and a mover in order to be a threat at majors again. She also happens to have a brutal draw, including a first-round matchup with Caroline Garcia.
Australian Open Pick To Win
Elena Rybakina (+900): It’s probably more likely that Sabalenka or Gauff will win this tournament, but Rybakina is a strong value play. She has the best serve on the WTA Tour, an improving baseline game and an extremely favorable draw. It doesn’t seem crazy to expect a trip to the semifinals, and she’ll have built up some serious confidence by then. Also, even if you wouldn’t like Rybakina’s chances in a meeting with Sabalenka, you’d probably be able to hedge off it and guarantee a profit at this number.
