When I worked alongside future Portland Trail Blazers assistant GM Mike Schmitz, he had a saying:
“The evaluation usually comes back around.”
What he meant was that even if it seems like the initial evaluation was way off, there are usually aspects of that opinion that resurface.
That is certainly proving true with Reed Sheppard.
Just two years ago, Sheppard was seen as the local throw-in for a John Calipari recruiting class that was the best in the country. Cal had three of the top five recruits in the nation — Justin Edwards, Aaron Bradshaw, and DJ Wagner — along with another top-25 prospect in Rob Dillingham. Sheppard, ranked No. 79 overall in the national class, was widely considered a multi-year college player, not just by national media but by Calipari and his staff as well.
Of course, that script quickly flipped when they all arrived in Lexington. Through his first six games at Kentucky, Sheppard led the country in plus/minus, effective field goal percentage, and true shooting percentage. He also ranked in the top 10 nationally in steal percentage and offensive rating.
While virtually everyone expected those numbers to come back down to earth, they never really did. He finished the season shooting over 52% from three-point range and was the only player in the country to record 145 assists, 80 steals, and 75 threes. He posted a true shooting percentage of 69.9%, sixth-best overall in the country and tops among high-major guards.
Sheppard went on to be the third pick in the draft, signed a four-year, $45 million contract, starred in the NBA Summer League in Las Vegas and became a trendy preseason pick for NBA Rookie of the Year.
Fast forward six months, and the Rockets assigned Sheppard to the G League on Monday. This followed averages of 3.3 points, 1.3 rebounds, and 1.2 assists on 32.2% shooting from the floor and 27.9% shooting from three, along with three DNPs in his last four games.
So, what part of the evaluation has come back around? It starts with those shooting numbers.
In the summer before Sheppard’s junior season of high school, he shot 32.9% from three-point range on the Adidas 3SSB circuit, making an average of 2.3 of his 7 attempts per game. A year later, during his final grassroots season, he shot 30.9% from three in 19 games on the circuit, hitting 1.8 of his 5.8 attempts per game. In his senior year of high school, across the seven games captured by Synergy Sports, he shot 15-for-58 from three (34.9%).
In other words, Sheppard had never shot better than 35% from three in any high school setting prior to hitting a whopping 52% at Kentucky.
Even days before the draft, when scouts and analysts touted Sheppard as a generational shooter, the variance in those numbers gave me pause, as captured in this clip from the Eye on College Basketball Podcast:
To be clear, our high school evaluation was wrong. That became apparent early in his freshman season and remains apparent today — albeit not quite as wrong as it seemed six months ago.
While the numbers might suggest last year was the exception, not the rule, that’s likely going too far the other way. Heading into the draft, I believed Sheppard would become a very good NBA shooter and player, just not a historic one.
Similarly, while Sheppard’s defensive metrics at Kentucky were stellar, some overrated his lateral quickness. He has terrific hands but lacks exceptional quickness or length, limiting him in certain matchups.
Another factor to note: Sheppard’s minutes in Houston have come primarily off the ball, consistent with his high school evaluation as more of a combo guard than a true point guard. This stems from a relatively high turnover rate and greater comfort when not initiating every possession.
Context matters. Houston is focused on winning now. With a 24-12 record and second place in the Western Conference, their starting backcourt of Fred VanVleet and Jalen Green leads the team in minutes. Young players like Green (22), Alperen Sengun (22), Tari Eason (23), Jabari Smith (21), and Amen Thompson (21) are balancing dual objectives: winning now while developing for the future. Sheppard and Cam Whitmore have struggled to find their footing in that dynamic.
MORE: Rockets’ Amen Thompson turning heads, including LeBron’s
Still, this doesn’t impact the long-term outlook for Sheppard. He’s likely to play a starring role for the Rio Grande Valley Vipers, get his rhythm back, and return to Houston soon. Just look at his G League debut: 49 points on eight three-pointers, with six assists, five rebounds and three steals.
It may be a lower level of competition with more freedom, but that’s the benefit. Tuesday’s game, and possibly Thursday’s as well, offer Sheppard a great chance to regain his rhythm and confidence. Afterward, with the Vipers taking a six-day layoff, Sheppard could be back with the Rockets in less than a week.
