The Houston Rockets have managed their rebuild about as responsibly as possible. They’ve hoarded draft picks, and thus far done relatively well with them. They’ve pursued veteran free agents, but have always managed to do so with an eye on value. They got Dillon Brooks when his reputation was in tatters, and gave other free agents like Fred VanVleet and Jock Landale team options to maximize their own flexibility. Most importantly, they haven’t rushed. General manager Rafael Stone has been pretty straightforward on that point. When the Jimmy Butler rumor cycle started last week, he went on SiriusXM NBA Radio to tell the world he doesn’t intend to make a blockbuster move any time soon.
“We like this team. We definitely do not intend to change anything, and I would be shocked if something changes this season,” Stone said. “We like where we’re at. We want to continue to develop our guys, full stop. Will I listen to other teams? Of course I will, that’s my job. But again, no, there’s no part of me, there’s no part of our decision-making process that suggests that we’re looking to do anything big now or in the near term.”
It’s a noble sentiment, not exactly dissimilar to Sam Presti’s “we have to finish our breakfast before we start acting like we’re on the cusp of something,” quote from roughly a year ago. Slow, methodical rebuilds tend to be the most effective ones, and Houston saw firsthand just how effective Oklahoma City’s approach to rebuilding has been on Saturday, when the Thunder knocked the Rockets out of the NBA Cup. Oklahoma City never rushed. It now has probably the most envious overall roster and asset outlook in basketball. The Rockets are gunning for something similar. But Saturday’s loss, and Houston’s overall NBA Cup performance, point toward a subtle difference that the Rockets need to be cognizant of: The Thunder have an MVP candidate and they do not.
That wasn’t the only difference between the Rockets and Thunder on Saturday, but it was the pertinent one. In the rock fight to end all rock fights, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander managed to find 32 huge points in a 111-96 victory. No Rocket even reached 20 against the Thunder. Alperen Sengun did so against the Warriors on Wednesday, but Golden State held Houston to just 91 points in the quarterfinal.
Again, we’re still reasonably early into this Houston rebuild. It’s not fair to draw sweeping conclusions yet, and the defensive identity the Rockets have cultivated is going to prove extremely valuable in the long run. But man, is scoring a slog for them, especially in the biggest moments. Their No. 18 offensive ranking is concerning, but remember, Minnesota rode a similar defense-first statistical profile to the Western Conference finals a year ago. The difference was that Minnesota had Anthony Edwards, and could therefore at least keep pace offensively when it counted. Those Timberwolves ranked 16th in fourth-quarter offense. These Rockets rank 25th.
Those are the moments in which an offense must be judged. The Rockets are hovering around league-average on offense overall, but once the defense locks in, their lack of a singular, apex-level shot-creator becomes most apparent. These NBA Cup games against the Warriors and Thunder are the closest approximations of the playoffs they are going to get during the regular season. Both games came against top-five offenses. Both featured multiple days of rest and, more importantly, game-planning. And on both occasions, the Rockets struggled to meet the greater offensive challenge.
That’s not to say they never will. Alperen Sengun’s offensive numbers are down across the board this season, but he flirted with an All-Star berth a season ago and is still in only his fourth season. Circumstances aren’t doing him any favors here. Unless you’re Nikola Jokic, centers that serve as offensive hubs are fairly reliant on proper spacing to avoid doubles and create cutting lanes for savy teammates. Houston ranks 18th in 3-point attempts and 28th in 3-point percentage.
Settling the shooting guard spot internally for the long haul might solve some of these problems. In a perfect world, Jalen Green, who has the athleticism and shot-profile of a traditional, high-usage All-Star, would just develop into that player consistently. That hasn’t happened yet. If it eventually does? Great. If not? Perhaps an eventual transition to Reed Sheppard, the No. 3 overall pick in last year’s draft and one of the best shooting prospects in recent memory, could open the floor up enough for Sengun to fully become the offensive centerpiece Houston needs. Maybe Sheppard eventually gets there himself.
The overarching point here is that Houston isn’t necessarily crazy for preferring to let matters play out organically for the time being. They have the youth and assets to make a move if and when the right one presents itself.
But these NBA Cup games have shown us, relatively convincingly, what these Rockets are in high-leverage moments at this point. The defense is ready for primetime. The offense is not. Without either significant internal growth in the very near future or a sizable trade of some sort, this team just isn’t going to be able to score enough to meaningfully contend for the 2025 championship. If the Rockets are content to eat their breakfast before thinking about lunch, well, that’s not the worst outcome. But it’s one the Rockets need to brace for. Even if the responsible rebuilding path is the correct one, it tends to come with plenty of bumps and bruises along the way.
