The Oklahoma City Thunder are going to have to make a lot of jump shots to beat the San Antonio Spurs four times in these Western Conference Finals. The Spurs have designed their entire defense to shut off penetration. Victor Wembanyama is lurking in the lane. Wings are digging down to road-block drivers, notably Oklahoma City’s MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
The strategy forced SGA into a 7-of-23 shooting night on a heavy jump shot diet in Game 1. He responded with a more efficient 30-point showing in Game 2, but again, almost entirely from the perimeter. Ten of his 12 buckets were heavily contested jumpers.
But there is a cost to devoting this much attention to Gilgeous-Alexander, and stationing so many defenders in the paint. That cost is leaving shooters open behind the 3-point line. Right now, Alex Caruso is making them pay up in a major way.
Through two games in this series (tied 1-1 ahead of Friday night’s Game 3), Caruso is an incredible 11 for 18 from 3 (61%). He’s scored 48 points — 31 in Game 1 when he hit eight 3s, and 17 more in Game 2 as he went 3 of 4 from downtown. This is a guy who made just 29% of his 3s this season and averaged 6.2 PPG. To say he’s punching above his weight class would be an understatement.
That said, he is getting such ridiculously open shots that it’s not unbelievable he’s making more of them than usual. Check out this look in Game 1. Wembanyama is assiged to Caruso specifically so he can ignore him to stand in the paint and clog up SGA’s driving lanes.
For an NBA shooter, even a not particularly good one, this is a practice shot.
Caruso has been getting these kinds of shots over and over. Here it is again in Game 1, with three Thunder defenders forming a triangle around Gilgeous-Alexander. Wembanyama, again assigned to Caruso, is a good 15 feet away. Understand, NBA tracking defines a “wide open” shot as the nearest defender being six feet away. This is a double-wide.
And, roll the tape …
Fast forward to Game 2. Caruso is the screener for Gilgeous-Alexander. Spurs guard Stephon Castle goes over and chases SGA downhill. Wemby drops all the way below the free-throw line to corral him until Castle can recover. Nobody is devoting a single thought to Caruso.
You want one more? Yeah, let’s do one more. Chet Holmgren has the ball at the top. Caruso is spotted up in the right corner as his defender, again Wembanyama, is all the way over on the left block because that’s the side of the floor Gilgeous-Alexander is on, and he wants to be ready for him. He doesn’t care about Caruso. Again, he’s a good 15 feet away. Skip pass to the corner. Bang.
It’s not just Caruso. Cason Wallace has six 3s through the first two games. He’s not being ignored as egregiously as Caruso because statistically he’s a better 3-point shooter, but he’s still being left as Wembanyama sinks down to, yet again, cut off SGA’s drives.
The Spurs are going to keep playing this way. Slowing Gilgeous-Alexander’s drives and clogging up the paint is the priority. They are going to force the Thunder to make enough jumpers to beat them four times in this series. Not one time. Four times. The Spurs believe the percentages will play out, and Caruso, specifically, will regress his mean eventually.
But so far, that hasn’t happened. In Game 1, the Thunder made 17 3-pointers; 11 of them came from their bench. In Game 2, they made 13 3-pointers, 12 of them came from their bench: Wallace (4), Caruso (3), Jared McCain (3), Jaylin Williams (2).
This is the biggest X-factor in this series. These are the guys the Spurs want shooting the ball, but if the efficiency doesn’t regress and they continue punish the Spurs for their paint-based defense, it’s going to very difficult to overcome all the other challenges OKC presents.
