The most-anticipated matchup of the 2026 NBA Playoffs has arrived. The reigning champion Thunder will go up against the upstart Spurs in the Western Conference Finals. The best-of-seven series begins on Monday, one day after the 2025-26 MVP award is handed out. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Victor Wembanyama, the biggest stars on the Thunder and Spurs, are both finalists.
One of them could very well be handed a trophy at the beginning of the series. But who will be celebrating with hardware at the end of the series? That’s what we’re here to discuss.
The Thunder, a perfect 8-0 through two rounds of these playoffs, are the favorites (-260 at FanDuel) to win this series and return to the NBA Finals. But the Spurs, who finished off the Timberwolves in the second round on Friday night, have had OKC’s number throughout the regular season.
Can Wemby and the Spurs pull off the upset? Or will the Thunder take another major step toward becoming the first back-to-back title winner in the NBA since 2018?
Thunder vs. Spurs predictions: WCF expert picks
Botkin: Spurs in 7. This series could come down to the handful of minutes that Victor Wembanyama goes to the bench. We saw the Timberwolves start attacking the rim, successfully, the second that happened, and OKC is all about paint and rim pressure. But Wemby should be playing 40-plus every night in this series, so they’re either going to have to score against the guy basically nobody can score against or make a lot of jumpers. In a shooting contest, I like the Spurs. Yes, San Antonio is going to have to deal with a level of physicality it has not seen in these playoffs. It could stun them initially. But at the end of the day, I’m betting on the Wemby effect to trump all other factors in this series. He’s the defensive version of 2014-15 Stephen Curry in the way he warps the geometry of the court. Because of that, those Warriors were ready to win it all before people were ready to accept that fact, without the years of “playoff bruises” everyone thinks you need to endure first, and San Antonio is going to win not only this series but the whole damn thing for the same reason.
Gonzalez: Thunder in 7. This is the one we’ve all been waiting for: the best two teams during the regular season led by two of the three MVP finalists. Apologies to whoever comes out of the Eastern Conference, but this might as well be the Finals proper. Nobody who gets out of the other side of the bracket is beating either of these teams. The Spurs won 4 of 5 against the Thunder this season — as Wemby is fond of mentioning — but as San Antonio surely knows that’s an entirely different proposition than beating the defending champs in the playoffs. Especially with OKC having home-court advantage, a place where the Thunder have lost just seven times all season. Jalen Williams is ready to return for the Thunder, adding more top-line talent to a team that’s already absurdly deep. SGA barely had to break a sweat in the second round against the Lakers. He’ll obviously have to work a lot harder against the Spurs. But as good as San Antonio is, there’s still a postseason experience gap between the Spurs and the Thunder. That counts for something here.
Herbert: Thunder in 7. That I’m predicting this will go seven is a testament to how awesome the Spurs have been. The Thunder are a true juggernaut of a team, deeper and more versatile and more physically imposing than most championship teams. And based on what we saw in the regular season, San Antonio really could take them down. The Spurs’ guards are capable of making OKC’s historically stingy defense look inadequate. Victor Wembanyama is capable of anything. I just think the Thunder have a bit more room for error, especially with Jalen Williams healthy again.
Maloney: Thunder in 7. Everyone has been looking forward to this series for months, and hopefully the wait will be worth it after a somewhat lackluster postseason thus far. The Spurs, as we’ve noted, went 4-1 against the Thunder during the regular season, and Victor Wembanyama’s presence causes real problems for how Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Co. like to operate. But the playoffs are not the regular season, and I’m picking the Thunder to advance in a narrow seven-game series for multiple reasons: their championship experience, their superior depth, their home-court advantage and the extra rest they’ve gotten all postseason after two consecutive sweeps.
Quinn: Thunder in 7. No team vexes Oklahoma City quite like San Antonio. So much of the Thunder offense hinges on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s rim pressure, and no player shuts opponents off at the rim quite like Victor Wembanyama. The Spurs won four of the five regular-season matchups. Both teams still have cards left to play. We don’t even really know how good the Thunder actually are yet, but with Jalen Williams set to return for this series, they might be about to level up. Would Oklahoma City juice its offense by keeping Ajay Mitchell in the starting five over Lu Dort when Williams comes back? Are the Spurs willing to start Dylan Harper? Their go-to “we’re getting serious” move in the old days was starting Manu Ginobili in a big playoff game, and Harper is quite clearly among their best five players. I’m leaning Oklahoma City for a few reasons. I don’t find San Antonio’s recent 3-point shooting all that sustainable. I think the Thunder are the only team in the NBA with the defensive athleticism to contain these guards. The Thunder have home-court advantage. And Oklahoma City has been here before, and I’m not sure the Spurs are quite ready for the level of physicality they’re about to endure. This is anyone’s series, and whoever takes it will be heavily favored in the Finals.
Salerno: Thunder in 6. This matchup reminds me of the Seahawks vs. Rams NFC Championship Game earlier this year. The Thunder and Spurs are the two best teams in the NBA, and the winner of this series will be the favorite in the NBA Finals — just like the Seahawks were the consensus favorite in the Super Bowl vs. the Patriots. I can’t pick against the Thunder. OKC has been dominating without Jalen Williams in the lineup. Ajay Mitchell is turning into a legit star in Williams’ absence. OKC’s physicality will be the difference here. One subplot of this series is that Victor Wembanyama will likely have to watch Shai Gilgeous-Alexander receive the MVP trophy. Drama! Give me OKC in 6.
