NBA games today: Playoff odds, predictions for Pistons vs. Cavaliers

The second round of the 2026 NBA playoffs will continue on Wednesday with a pivotal Game 5 between the Detroit Pistons and the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Central Division rivals, meeting in the playoffs for the first time since 2007, have split the first four games, with the home team winning every time. 

As the series shifts back to Detroit for Game 5, will that trend continue? Or will the Cavaliers finally win a road game for the first time all postseason? 

Ahead of Wednesday’s contest, let’s take a closer look at this matchup and make a prediction. 

NBA games today: May 13 playoff schedule

Odds via FanDuel, all times ET

• Game 5: Cleveland Cavaliers at Detroit Pistons (-3.5), 8 p.m. — ESPN

Pistons vs. Cavaliers Game 5 prediction

Before the second round of the playoffs began, our CBS Sports experts made their predictions for every series. No one expected this one to end earlier than six games, and six of the seven members of the panel expected it to go the distance. On that front, at least, everyone was correct. 

This series has been extremely competitive. Three of the first four games have featured clutch time — score within five points with five or fewer minutes remaining — no team has won by more than 10 points, each team has won twice at home and the total score through four games is Pistons 430, Cavaliers 426. 

There’s no reason to expect anything different on Wednesday. 

While the Cavaliers have momentum on their side, the Pistons are favored because they’re at home, and location has been extremely important for both of these teams in the postseason. The Pistons are 5-1 at home and 1-4 on the road, while the Cavaliers are 6-0 at home and 0-5 on the road. 

Why?

Better 3-point shooting at home

Teams shooting better at home is nothing new, and both the Pistons and Cavaliers have dramatic splits, which goes a long way toward explaining their respective play at home. Among all 16 playoff teams, the Pistons and Cavaliers are tied for third in home 3-point shooting. But when it comes to road 3-point shooting, the Pistons are 12th and the Cavaliers are 14th. 

Home 3-point shooting

Road 3-point shooting

A more favorable whistle

Additionally, both teams have gotten a substantially better whistle at home than on the road. Which, again, isn’t much of a surprise. 

The Cavaliers lead all playoff teams in home free-throw attempts per game, while the Pistons are not far behind in fourth. On the road, however, the Cavaliers drop to eighth, while the Pistons fall to 10th. That’s a big drop off for teams that rely heavily on getting to the line. For the playoffs overall, both teams are in the top five in percentage of points scored from free throws. 

Pistons’ free-throw splits

Cavaliers’ free throw splits

For both teams, there’s been about a four-point swing from the line at home compared to on the road. That’s a huge difference, especially with how close these matchups have been. 

Stars shine brightest at home

There’s often talk in the playoffs about role players being better at home, but for these teams, their outcomes have swung wildly from home to away because of how their stars have performed in different venues. The likes of Cade Cunningham, Donovan Mitchell and James Harden have all been significantly better at home than they have been on the road. And when that’s the case, it really doesn’t matter what your role players are doing. 

Here’s a look at Cunningham and Mitchell’s stark differences by location:

Cade Cunningham splits

Donovan Mitchell splits

Pistons win at home

All things considered, the Pistons are the obvious pick here. Cunningham will bounce back from a poor Game 4 and the Pistons will win a close one to take a 3-2 lead and move within one win of their first Eastern Conference finals appearance since 2008. Pick: Pistons -3.5