3 min readNew DelhiApr 24, 2026 10:25 PM IST
By 2085, over a third of wildlife habitats on land could suffer multiple types of climate-driven extreme weather events, such as heatwaves, wildfires, and floods, if warming continues to rise in the second half of the century, according to a new study published in Nature Ecology & Evolution journal.
The study, led by researchers at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Germany, analysed the impact of climate change in a medium-high emission scenario on nearly 34,000 vertebrate species.
The most widespread impact will be from extreme heatwaves, the study found. By 2050, 74% of animal habitats on land will be exposed to heatwaves, 16% to wildfire, 8% to droughts, and 3% to floods if warming continues into the latter half of the century, the study said. Biodiversity hotspots such as the Amazon, tropical Africa and Southeast Asia will see a sharp increase in frequency of these extreme events, the study noted.
However, cutting emissions to net zero could still prevent these impacts, and also limit the animal habitats exposed to extreme events, the study highlighted.
An international team of 18 scientists used climate projections, impact simulations along with data of species distribution to assess exposure risk to 33,936 terrestrial vertebrate species and 794 ecoregions.
“I think climate change, and in particular extreme events, are still really being underestimated when it comes to conservation planning. It’s not just going to be a gradual shift of temperature over many years,” said lead author Stefanie Heinicke, a postdoctoral researcher at PIK, in a statement.
“There is a lot of difference we can make by cutting emissions as fast as we can from today,” Heinicke added.
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Extreme climate events, the study underscored, can have devastating impacts on terrestrial biodiversity. The 2019-20 heatwave in Australia, the study said, killed more than 72,000 flying foxes – one of the largest bat species in the world. In the same year, wildfires in the Pantanal (South America) killed an estimated 17 million vertebrates, as per the study.
While one heatwave or wildfire event can devastate animal populations, multiple events occurring one after another compound the impacts. A study on the 2019-20 Australian fires showed there were 27-40% greater declines in plant and animal species when the fire was preceded by a drought.
Further nuanced analysis showed that native species typically showed higher vulnerability to extreme events than non-native species, and also affected vegetation, altering habitat quality for several species.
Extreme events, however, can also have some benefits for certain species, the study noted. It cited the example of the ornate chorus frog, which experiences lower predation pressure during droughts. Some species and ecosystems are also adapted to, or even rely, on these disturbances. However, climate change, the study said, is intensifying extreme events beyond what many species are likely to adapt to within a short time-frame.
