Last year, the Oklahoma City Thunder pulled off a rare wire-to-wire victory, opening as the clear favorite and rewarding backers who didn’t hesitate to put their faith in the talent-rich club to bring home the first NBA championship in franchise history.
For most of the season, the Thunder lingered in the +175 range in the NBA futures betting odds, a rare overwhelming favorite in a league that sees 20 of its 30 teams reach the postseason in some capacity. Most seasoned futures bettors will almost always stray away from playing such a thin favorite when NBA betting, but the Thunder proved to be the correct play and the plus-money price found in the regular season provided the most value.
Even so, Oklahoma City’s journey to the title didn’t come without resistance. The Thunder were taken to seven games in the conference semifinals by the Denver Nuggets and in the NBA Finals by the longshot Indiana Pacers before winning Game 7 in both series on their home floor in the Paycom Center.
Now, we’re basically seeing a repeat of the Thunder’s trajectory in the NBA futures odds as the team attempts to become the first NBA repeat champion since the Golden State Warriors accomplished the feat in 2017-18.
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The Thunder were priced around +135 to win the title during the second half of the regular season. They are now priced at -130 at FanDuel Sportsbook after taking a 2-0 lead against the Phoenix Suns in their first-round playoff series. By comparison, the Thunder bolted to a favorite of -200 or steeper last season following a first-round sweep of the Memphis Grizzlies, forcing NBA futures bettors to lay a thick price or invest elsewhere.
If you passed on Oklahoma City at the thin plus-money price in the regular season, is it worth laying the modest -130 price now? In short, yes. The club already looks more comfortable in the postseason and is coasting past the Suns with what appears to be modest effort.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who is on the cusp on his consecutive MVP award and is the favorite to win Finals MVP, is averaging 31.0 points, 8.0 assists and 4.5 rebounds through the two playoff games. A hamstring injury to Jalen Williams, who averaged 17.1 points in the regular season and was an important cog in last year’s title run, is a concern, but he should be back by the second round of the playoffs. What’s more, Oklahoma City amassed a 64-18 record despite Williams being limited to 33 games because of various ailments.
We don’t see the Houston Rockets or Los Angeles Lakers having the firepower to stay with the Thunder in the second round, and the gritty San Antonio Spurs, their likely conference finals opponent, are a formidable foe but lack big-stage experience. Plus, the Thunder’s home-court edge could be the difference.
In other words, we believe the Thunder, who are -230 favorites to win the Western Conference, have a clear and favorable faith to their second consecutive NBA Finals, where they are likely to meet the most resistance. The Celtics (+140) are favored to win the Eastern Conference, with the Cleveland Cavaliers (+260) the second choice, per FanDuel odds.
We like Boston to make it through on the other side, and a conference future on the Celtics could provide a bit of an insurance policy on an NBA Finals future. But should the Celtics and Thunder meet in the NBA Finals, your -130 wager on the Thunder, a price that will likely only last a couple more days at best, will provide an easy in-series hedge position should you choose to take that route. Although it’s difficult to repeat as champion in any professional sport, we have a difficult time seeing the Thunder sent to defeat four times, barring a catastrophic injury or surprisingly below-expectation performance level.
Note: Last week in this space, we recommended taking the Lakers +2.5 games (-105) in a series spread bet against the Houston Rockets, They have already cashed this wager by taking a 2-0 series lead. We also offered a play on the Trail Blazers +2.5 games against the Spurs (+160), and they need one more victory following a 1-1 split in the first two games.
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