Has Elena Rybakina passed Swiatek and Gauff as the biggest threat to Sabalenka on dirt?
Rybakina’s win in Stuttgart this past week had the quality of a statement.
A big-serving champion at Wimbledon and the Australian Open, she’s never been known as a clay-courter. But Stuttgart was her fifth title on the surface, and to win it she beat two Roland Garros contenders, Mirra Andreeva and Karolina Muchova, in convincing fashion. When it was over, she was No. 1 in the WTA’s 2026 Race to Riyadh
Is she ready to make an even bigger statement? Rybakina liked the quick conditions in Stuttgart, so she’ll be comfortable with them in Madrid as well, right? Much like Sinner, she has been surprisingly unsuccessful at this event. She’s 8-5, and has made just one semi in five tries.
To change that history, she’ll have to earn it. The seeds in Rybakina’s quarter include Zheng Qinwen, Amanda Anisimova, Madison Keys, Jelena Ostapenko, Maria Sakkari, and Elise Mertens.
How about Iga and Coco? We can’t count the defending Roland Garros and Wimbledon champions out quite yet. Swiatek has a new coach in Francisco Roig, and Gauff made the final in Miami last month.
Swiatek is in Sabalenka’s half, and her path looks like this: Kasatkina/Ann Li/Jovic/Andreeva or Svitolina in the quarters
Gauff is in Rybakina’s half, and her path looks like this: Qualifier/Cirstea/Noskova/Pegula or Mboko in the quarters
