The Cleveland Cavaliers could be embarking upon their most important postseason since LeBron James left for the Lakers. Donovan Mitchell has already stated he believes this is his “best shot” to win a championship, and he might very well be right.
The Eastern Conference is wide open. The Celtics are regarded by most as the favorite, but Jayson Tatum is barely a month into his return. Detroit is the top seed, but we all know that Boston is not even close to a perfect team. Same goes for the Knicks. At least making the Finals is not just a real possibility for these fourth-seeded Cavs, but an expectation that could be a key factor in whether Mitchell signs the max extension for which he is eligible this summer to remain in Cleveland.
And that’s where this potentially gets really dicey.
According to Fred Katz of The Athletic, the Cavaliers will “discuss the possibility of [trading Mitchell]” over the summer if he opts not to sign that extension. It’s important to note that Mitchell has professed his fondness for Cleveland on numerous occasions, and nobody can say for sure whether an early postseason flameout would be enough for him to pass up hundreds of millions of dollars from a team and city he loves.
But it would track. Giannis Antetokounmpo clearly loves Milwaukee and the Bucks, after all, but once these mega stars feel that their championship window with a particular organization has closed, they tend to move on. LeBron left the Cavs twice. He was a free agent both times, of course, but in today’s age, teams are wary of letting it get that far in the first place.
You have to be ahead of the curve before all leverage flies out the window, and perhaps the Cavs have now arrived at the curve. They already made the short-term trade for James Harden, cashing in the 26-year-old Darius Garland to give Mitchell a 36-year-old running mate. Who knows if Cleveland will resign Harden this summer? The consensus seems to be he’ll turn down his $42 million player option in hopes of a longer-term deal at a lower annual number.
But not that low. Harden is still an All-Star level player, and keeping him in Cleveland will cost. At that to the max contracts of Evan Mobley and Mitchell (his current one), $28 million for Jarrett Allen, and north of $40 million for Max Strus, Sam Merrill and Dennis Schroder, and Cleveland is looking at surpassing the second salary apron again next season (they were already the only team to do so this season).
We know that carries tax penalties that could choke a hippo, but even without that, it’s just too much money to pour into a second-round team. As good as the Cavs have been in the regular season, they’ve never gone deeper than that since LeBron left. Even putting Mitchell aside, Mobley has seemingly plateaued beneath the level of a player that is worth the five years and $224 million the Cavs gave him in the summer of 2024. By the time the final year of that deal arrives, Mobley will be making nearly $60 million annually.
It begs the question: Can the Cavs afford to keep this roster intact if it doesn’t produce in the playoffs again? There’s no question they would sign Mitchell to the max extension without blinking, but if Mitchell doesn’t see the organization continuing to pay all these other guys in the absence of postseason results, how much will he factor that into his own equation?
In one sense, we’re a long way from this situation turning the corner from speculation to reality. But in another sense, reality hits fast in the NBA. Especially if the Cavs disappoint again in these playoffs.
