After five-plus months and 1,230 regular season games, the NBA playoffs finally begin this week.
The reigning champion Oklahoma City Thunder enter the postseason as the team to beat. After winning a league-best 64 games in the regular season, the Thunder are the +115 NBA betting favorites at FanDuel to lift the Larry O’Brien Trophy for a second consecutive season. But the Boston Celtics (+550), who won the championship two years ago, and the young San Antonio Spurs (+550), who arguably have the league’s most unique weapon in Victor Wembanyama, are threats to knock off the defending champs. The Nuggets (+1000) and Cavaliers (+1100) lead the next tier of contenders.
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But even though Oklahoma City is the clear favorite to win the title, the Thunder’s odds of +115 do not offer value, according to the SportsLine Projection Model. The model, which simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and enters the playoffs on a 23-9 roll (72%) on top-rated NBA spread betting picks this season, gives Oklahoma City a 40.2% chance to go back-to-back. Given the implied odds of 46.5%, the model says to stay away from the Thunder in NBA futures betting odds.
However, the model has found value on the odds board as the playoffs begin. Here are four plays it likes.
Detroit Pistons +1800 to win NBA Finals
- Implied odds: 5.26%
- Model odds: 10.14%
With three of the top four title contenders in the Western Conference, the Eastern Conference offers arguably the easier path to the trophy. And the Pistons (60-22) have been the beasts of the East from Day 1.
They own the league’s second-best defense (108.9 points allowed per 100 possessions), ranking behind only Oklahoma City. They also feature do-it-all star Cade Cunningham (23.9 points, 9.9 assists and 5.5 rebounds per game), who’s back from a collapsed lung that forced him to miss 11 games toward the end of the season.
But despite having the best record in the East and homecourt advantage against everybody not named the Thunder and Spurs, there are five teams with shorter odds than Detroit (+1800) to win the championship. The model’s simulations say that the Pistons lift the trophy 10.14% of the time and consider anything at +900 or better value.
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Houston Rockets +5500 to win NBA Finals
- Implied odds: 1.79%
- Model odds: 4.48%
The Rockets have been a maddening team all season. Despite having a deep and talented roster led by Kevin Durant, the Rockets (52-30) finished with just the fifth-best record in the West, behind even the defensively challenged Lakers. Houston has struggled in clutch situations this season with a turnover rate of 1.6, which is the worst in the league. That does not bode well in the playoffs in which every game seems to come down to one or two possessions.
But the Rockets are still one of just five teams that rank in the top eight in both offensive (eighth at 117.5 points per 100) and defensive (sixth at 112.1) rating. And, unlike last season when they lost in the first round as the No. 2 seed, they will have Durant, who was acquired last offseason to be the team’s closer when the stakes are the highest. And the stakes are the highest now.
The model says Houston has a 4.48% chance to bring the title to H-town, which is greater than the implied odds of 1.79%.
Los Angeles Lakers +550 to win first-round series against Rockets
- Implied odds: 15.38%
- Model odds: 25.6%
Even though the model sees value in the Rockets’ title odds, it also sees value in Houston losing its first round series against the Lakers. The series pits one of the least clutch teams in the league this season, Houston, with the most clutch, Los Angeles. In clutch games this season, the Lakers went 22-8. Their winning percentage of 73.3% in such games was the best in the NBA.
Just one month ago, the teams played a baseball-style series in Houston, and Los Angeles won both, winning by eight points in each game. The second game was particularly telling as the Rockets played it with Alperen Sengun.
Of course, the Lakers played those games with Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves, and both players are still out indefinitely with injuries. But the model’s simulations are factoring in that both Doncic and Reaves will not play and still sees value in +550. The model gives Los Angeles a 25.6% chance to win the series, which is greater than the implied odds of 15.38%.
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Toronto Raptors +425 to win first-round series against Cavaliers
- Implied odds: 19.0%
- Model odds: 42.7%
This is the model’s best value entering the playoffs. Led by multiple ball hawks on the perimeter, the Raptors feed off pressuring the ball and creating havoc on the floor. They rank fourth in the league in turnovers forced (16.1 per game) and fifth in the NBA in defensive efficiency (112.1 points allowed per 100 possessions). They also turn those turnovers into points, leading the league in fast break points per game (18.9).
They also have had success against Cleveland this season. Toronto swept all three games against the Cavaliers, but the teams haven’t played since November. Darius Garland did not play in any of those games before he was traded from Cleveland to the Clippers for James Harden, who did not face the Raptors while with the Cavs.
The model says the Raptors have a 42.7% chance to win the series, which is far greater than the implied odds of 19.0%.
