4 min readUpdated: Apr 13, 2026 07:01 PM IST
India is expected to receive a ‘below normal’ rainfall in the monsoon season this year, with a developing El Nino, a phenomenon in the eastern Pacific Ocean that influences global weather patterns, likely to play spoilsport, the India Meteorological Department said on Monday.
In its first long-range forecast for the season, the IMD said India as a whole was likely to receive rainfall that was 92 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA). India receives about 87 cm of rainfall during the four-month monsoon season between June and September. This is the LPA, or the average of seasonal rainfall over the 50-year period between 1971 and 2020.
“Quantitatively, the seasonal rainfall during June – September this year will be 92 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) with an error margin of 5 per cent,” said M Ravichandran, Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences, while issuing the forecast in New Delhi.
IMD issues the first seasonal rainfall forecast in the middle of April every year, and follows it up with another one in May during which it also provides predictions for the spatial and monthly distribution of rainfall during the season.
This is the first time in at least a decade that IMD has forecast a below normal (between 90 and 96 per cent of LPA) rainfall at the first stage. In 2015 and 2016, IMD had forecast 93 per cent rains for the season (see table).
“There is some concern for the second half of the monsoon season (August and September). The El Nino is expected to gain its peak strength in July. There is about a month of lag for it to influence the Indian monsoon. So, the August and September rains are likely to be affected under this influence,” Ravichandran said.
The ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) refers to the periodic warming or cooling of the eastern Pacific Ocean, off the coast of South America, that influences weather worldwide. In India, its most evident impact happens on the monsoon rainfall. A warmer than usual waters of the eastern Pacific Ocean, the El Nino phase, is usually correlated with a suppressed rainfall over the Indian subcontinent. The opposite phenomenon, a cooler than normal phase, called La Nina tends to bring more rainfall over India. Right now, the eastern Pacific Ocean is said to be in the ENSO-neutral phase but is transitioning to an El Nino state.
Story continues below this ad
IMD director general Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said two other large-scale global phenomenon that also have influence over monsoon rainfall are likely to turn favourable and would help offset some of the negative influence by El Nino.
“The Indian Ocean Dipole, that is the ENSO-like phenomenon in the Indian Ocean, is likely to become positive in the second half of the monsoon season. So that might be of some help. Then the Eurasian snow cover, the amount of ice in the hilly regions of Asia and Europe, is also known to impact monsoon rainfall. It is negatively correlated with Indian monsoon rainfall. This year, in the months of January, February and March, the Eurasian snow cover is lower than normal, and that is a favourable condition for Indian monsoon,” Mohapatra said.
However, among the three, the ENSO phenomenon is the one which usually has the strongest influence.
The four month monsoon is the chief rainy season for India during which the country receives over 70 per cent of its annual rainfall. July and August contribute the maximum to India’s rainfall.
Story continues below this ad
Mohapatra said the negative impact of El Nino was likely to be felt only in the second part of the monsoon season. That could mean that the sowing season for the kharif crops, June and July, might escape the worst impacts.
