We’re roughly three weeks out from the conclusion of the regular season and the start of the playoffs. We broke down our Eastern Conference contender tiers yesterday. Today, we’ll run through the Western Conference contenders.
As always, a note that this is not a power ranking of the entire conference. Only teams that have a chance to make a run in the postseason appear here, though your mileage may vary on who qualifies.
Eastern Conference contender tiers: Pistons deserve respect but Celtics in a class of their own
John Gonzalez
Tier 1 — The Champs
Oklahoma City Thunder
No surprise here. The Thunder are on a league-high 12-game winning streak and are the heavy favorites on FanDuel to win the West at -130. OKC got off to a blistering 24-1 start, but even though that pace slowed for a period, the Thunder have remained atop the standings with the best record and point differential in the NBA. They’re seventh in offensive rating and, once again, their top-ranked defense has been stifling. OKC has also won the fourth-most clutch games and they’re a league-best 37-6 in games decided by 10 points or more.
After breaking a scoring record that Wilt Chamberlain held for 63 years, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander might have locked up a second straight MVP. But while SGA has been typically excellent, the most impressive part of this season for OKC might be how its depth has helped overcome injuries to key personnel. Jalen Williams has been limited to just 27 games due to injury and only recently returned to the lineup. Meanwhile, Isaiah Hartenstein, Ajay Mitchell and Alex Caruso have all missed chunks of the season. And yet the Thunder haven’t slipped because they’ve gotten timely contributions from everyone from Cason Wallace to Lu Dort to newly acquired Jared McCain. Even when their best players have an off night or aren’t available, the Thunder remain dangerous.
Tier 2 — Biggest Challenger
San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs have been in hot pursuit of the Thunder all season. OKC might have rattled off 12 straight wins, but San Antonio has won 22 of its last 24 to keep the Spurs just three games back of the Western Conference leaders. San Antonio is third in point differential and defensive rating and fifth in offense. They have the second-best record in clutch games, and no one has more wins against opponents that are .500 or better. There’s a lot to like about the Spurs, who have the second-best odds to win the conference at +340.
And yet history says that San Antonio faces long odds in its pursuit of not just winning the conference but another NBA title. The Spurs haven’t made the playoffs since 2019. You have to go back to the 1976-77 Portland Trail Blazers to find a team that overcame that kind of playoff inexperience to win the championship.
Still, the Spurs have spent much of this season proving that they’re not just built for the future but for right now. That has everything to do with Victor Wembanyama. If he can clear the 65-game threshold, Wemby is a top-tier MVP candidate and a lock for Defensive Player of the Year. Jumping the line gets a lot easier when you have someone of that caliber leading the way.
Tier 3 — Joker’s Wild
Denver Nuggets
Based purely on the standings, the Nuggets could be lower. But Denver hasn’t had its full complement of players available for almost the entire season. Nikola Jokic, Christian Braun, Cameron Johnson and Aaron Gordon all missed significant time this season. While Braun, Johnson and Gordon were out, Peyton Watson stepped up and morphed from a question mark off the bench to an invaluable starter who helped keep the Nuggets afloat. Naturally, he then also got injured and only recently returned from a hamstring issue.
Despite all the injuries, the Nuggets are still first in offensive rating and have remained in the mix for a top-four seed and homecourt advantage in the first round. The 21st-ranked defense is a concern, but if Denver is healthy for the playoffs, no one will want to play them. Joker might not be the MVP, but he’s been arguably the best player in the world for a while now and this is unquestionably the best team he’s ever had around him. Jamal Murray is the first All-Star Jokić has ever played with, and Murray should make All-NBA as well. And don’t forget: Denver took OKC to Game 7 in last year’s playoffs. That Nuggets team wasn’t nearly as deep or versatile as this version.
For what it’s worth, the oddsmakers seem to think it’s a three-team race in the West. The Nuggets are third at +550. Everyone else in the conference is +1600 or higher.
Tier 4 — Muscle Memory
Minnesota Timberwolves
Anthony Edwards was diagnosed with knee inflammation a week ago. He’s expected to miss a couple weeks and, at the moment, is limited to individual workouts. It’s not ideal as Minnesota jockeys for playoff position. Right now, the Wolves, Lakers, Nuggets and Rockets are all within 2 ½ games of each other and could finish anywhere from the three to the six seed.
The argument for putting Minnesota in its own tier ahead of two of those other teams is its obvious recent history. The Wolves went to back-to-back Western Conference Finals. Last season, they made it as the six seed. That’s not easy. Last year’s team featured Nickiel Alexander-Walker, and not having him certainly hurt their depth for much of the season. But the Wolves added Ayo Dosunmu at the deadline to bolster their bench and give them another reliable guard.
Ultimately, the whole thing comes down to Ant and his health. If he’s good to go for the postseason and playing well, they have a shot to reach the conference finals again. If not, they don’t.
Tier 5 — Maybe They Stay Hot?
Los Angeles Lakers
This will likely anger Lakers fans. I get it. They’ve been hot lately and rattled off nine straight wins before the Pistons — sans Cade Cunningham — snapped their streak, which included seven victories against teams .500 or better. Since the All-Star break, they’re fourth in offensive rating. They have a 1 ½-game lead over the Nuggets for the three seed. Luka Doncic is playing out of his mind. Austin Reaves has been outstanding as the second offensive option on most nights. And, no small point, LeBron James has embraced his role as the do-anything-that’s-needed guy on any given night. As JJ Redick noted, the Lakers are at their best when LeBron has the third-highest usage behind the other two in favor of doing all the little things that previously fell through the cracks.
The Lakers’ top three are tremendously talented and they’re playing their best basketball as the regular season funnels into the playoffs. So why are they in the fifth tier and behind a couple of teams they’re ahead of in the standings? Because after those top three players, the Lakers roster gets real thin, real fast. I’ve asked this question before, but it bears repeating: who’s the fourth-best player on the Lakers? Take your time and noodle on it. Because eventually you’re gonna shrug and try to convince yourself it’s Marcus Smart or DeAndre Ayton, two guys who have their uses but who have been wildly inconsistent. After that, the Lakers’ talent pool is shallow enough that they try to squeeze some production out of Jake LaRavia, Luke Kennard, Rui Hachimura, and Jaxson Hayes. That’s a tough ask on most nights.
There’s a reason why the organization has been prioritizing cap space and positioning the roster to jettison everyone but Luka and Reaves over the next two years and rebuild around them on the fly. It’s not impossible to imagine the Lakers getting hot in the playoffs thanks to their three stars, but the lack of depth beyond the trio suggests a deep run would be difficult.
Tier 6 — You Have to Squint to See it
Houston Rockets
After losing Fred Van Vleet for the season with an ACL injury, the Houston Rockets cooked up a theory of the case: win on the offensive glass and pile up second-chance points. Makes sense. Outside of Reed Sheppard, they have a monster rotation in terms of size. That worked for a while. Through mid-January, the Rockets led the league in offensive rebounds and second-chance points per game. The double-big lineup of Alperen Sengun and Steven Adams was particularly effective and difficult for the opposition to counter.
Then Adams got hurt and was shut down for the season with an ankle injury. Since losing Adams, the Rockets have slipped a little in their favored approach, falling to third in offensive rebounds and ninth in second-chance points. Clint Capela — who was added during the offseason as a contingency plan for just this sort of development — hasn’t had nearly the impact the Rockets hoped. Not dominating the second-chance points in the same way they did early in the season complicates matters considering Houston struggles to shoot the ball. The Rockets are 10th in 3-point percentage but just 29th in attempts per game. Only the Kings take fewer 3s. Beyond Kevin Durant and Sheppard, they don’t have many (or any) reliable outside shooters. That’s a tough way to play.
FVV’s absence has also created a ball-handling and playmaking void, especially late in games. Amen Thompson is an immensely talented player, but his shot remains nonexistent. Having him on the ball during the meat of a game is a different proposition than putting it in his hands when the score is tight and the Rockets need a bucket. Not surprisingly, the late-game offense is hyper-reliant on KD. The opposition is well aware of that and invariably hounds Durant. As a byproduct, the Rockets have struggled in clutch games, going just 19-21, including a disappointing loss to a bad Bulls team on Monday.
KD, Sengun, Thompson and Sheppard are good enough that the Rockets landed in their own tier, but there’s an argument to be made that Houston should be dropped into the everyone else grouping below. I’m not there yet — but it’s close.
Tier 7 — DOA
Everyone else
All the play-in teams are listed at +12500 or higher. The Suns are seven games above .500, which no one apart from Mat Ishbia would have predicted before the season. They might be closer to the Rockets than the rest of the teams they’re lumped with here, but that’s not saying much.
I’m not sure anyone believes in the Clippers — including the Clippers, who traded two of their five starters at the deadline. Not exactly the move you make when you think you can make a run.
The Blazers get a pass. They’re no doubt happy to be in the play-in mix and they have some fun young players to be excited about in Deni Avdija and Donovan Clingan.
Steph Curry remains sidelined with a knee injury. Without him, Golden State is cooked, and they probably are even after he returns. The Warriors have only one more win in clutch games than the Mavericks. Seems bad.
