The Los Angeles Lakers were gifted Luka Dončić. They didn’t do anything to deserve him. They didn’t put out some extraordinary trade package filled with golden assets, which is what most teams have to do to get their hands on a generational superstar in the prime of his career, cashing in their franchise 401K for a couple-year YOLO run. No, all Rob Pelinka had to do was go to coffee with Nico Harrison.
In most cases, it would be far past the time to move on from talking about a trade that happened nearly 14 months ago. But this isn’t most cases. And it’s not hindsight-is-20/20 either. Everyone knew it at the time, and everyone knows it now. That was the single dumbest trade in NBA history. It never should’ve happened, but at the very least Dallas should’ve gotten a historic haul.
It’s actually a fun thought experiment to imagine that it didn’t. Put Luka back on the Mavericks and you lose Cooper Flagg (Dallas almost certainly would’ve made the playoffs last year with Luka, and thus been picking outside the lottery), but the Mavericks still have all the bones of a team that made the Finals two years ago.
Even as it stands, there’s still a reasonable argument to be made that, long term, Dallas actually might’ve come out ahead on this deal. Not because Luka isn’t extraordinary, but because Flagg is, as well, and on top of that he’s younger and far cheaper for the next three years and arguably easier to build around with such a two-way rounded skillset.
You don’t have to agree with that.
But there’s at least an honest debate to be had.
For the Lakers, there is no such debate. Take Dončić off this team and the Lakers aren’t going anywhere. Perhaps they would have been forced into an actual appropriate-value trade for Anthony Davis (like the one Dallas just had to stomach by salary dumping him to the Wizards). It’s possible LeBron would’ve moved on by now, and the Lakers would be officially into a rebuild largely bereft of any true building blocks. Either that, or they would be running a 41-year-old into the ground asking him to play first fiddle, a song-and-dance operation set to the depressing music of mediocrity while staring down an even bleaker post-LeBron future.
Instead, they have Luka, a bonafide No. 2 in Austin Reaves, a suddenly spry defense, an eight-game winning streak (and 11 of 12) and a clearly energized LeBron, reinvigorated by less responsibility and more hope that a fifth championship is actually a possibility in 2026.
It’s not to say the Lakers are a sure contender. It’s that without Luka, they for sure would not be. There is still question as to whether this defense can hold up in the playoffs, let alone through four rounds, to say nothing of their 28th-ranked rebounding and lack of rim protection, and OKC and San Antonio have more than earned the favorite card. But when Luka is going like this there’s an “all bets are off” factor that cannot be dismissed.
He’s been MVP-caliber his entire career, but there were enough “buts” to keep him in the second tier of that conversation. And, at least partly by extension, it kept the Lakers beneath the serious-contender threshold.
- He’s great, but he’s a volume 3-point shooter.
- He’s great, but he’s one of the worst defenders in the league.
- He’s great, but he’s insufferable with the refs and kills both the spirit and transition defense of his team with all his live-ball complaining.
- He’s great, but he’s out of shape, which catches up to him the deeper you go into the playoffs.
But … all that has changed. Since Jan. 1, Dončić is shooting over 40% from 3 on a tick under 11 attempts a game. Since the All-Star break, he’s at nearly 43% on more than 12 attempts per game. That’s Stephen Curry stuff.
Not only that, but he’s cut the complaining to a large degree, too. Maybe that’s because he’s one technical foul away from a suspension. Whatever the reason, he hasn’t had a tech since March 5, which, for him, is basically a lifetime. Obviously he got himself into terrific shape over the summer and has largely maintained that condition.
He also hasn’t been anything close to the disastrous defender his reputation suggests. In truth, he’s actually been a more engaged defender for a while now, even dating back to the end of his time in Dallas era. But this season, and particularly these last few months, is as helpful as he’s ever been.
To be fair, there are still plenty of blow-bys to be found on tape. Like this one to start the Houston game:
And this one a few possessions later:
Luka is shifty with the ball because of his handle, strength, step-back threat and overall offensive rhythm, but he has slow feet and is never going to be a strong lateral mover. A certain amount of blow-bys are inevitable, and indeed he’s still a target for opposing offenses. No matter how hard he tries, teams are going to switch hunt him and test him in space, as evidenced by the fact that he’s being isolated on more than 14% of the possessions he faces, a 95th percentile frequency league wide, per Synergy.
That said, he has, statistically speaking, held up way better than you think, allowing 0.84 points per isolation. That’s a better mark than Amen Thompson, among many other notable defensive studs, and right in line with the likes of OG Anunoby and Draymond Green and in the neighborhood of Scottie Barnes.
Nobody is going to confuse Luka with those guys as a defender, and numbers like this are susceptible to circumstance, but the tape doesn’t lie. Where Dončić’s increased defensive commitment shows up most, particularly within the Lakers’ scrambly scheme that requires all kinds of rotations and recoveries, is as a disruptive helper, closing down on lanes and quickly closing back out, jumping passing lanes, just being aware.
Dončić leads the Lakers in steals and is top-10 league-wide among qualified players. He’s seventh in charges drawn.
Yahoo’s Kelly Iko recently wrote on Dončić’s improved defense, and in that story you’ll find this cut.
There is no shortage of efforts like this to be found in the Dončić tape. Again, he’s still not a good individual defender. Not by a stretch. But the Lakers are a group-project defense and he’s no longer a no-show at the meetings. He’s doing his part.
That’s all anyone can ask when you tasked with spending as much offensive energy as Dončić is. Seriously, the dude just scored 100 points over a 24-hour span. He put 40 on the Rockets on Wednesday, fllew to Miami (reportedly with the Lakers getting in at nearly 5 a.m.), grabbed a few hours sleep, then rolled out Thursday night and, in a game many people assumed he wouldn’t even play in, and hung another 60 on the Heat.
Dončić did this on a combined 55% shooting clip, including 16 for 34 from 3. The power of Dončić shooting with this kind of efficiency cannot be overstated. It’s hard enough to keep up with him when he’s shooting 32% from 3, as he did through the first two months of the season. But at least in that scenario you have a fighting chance.
When the 3-ball is going like this, forget about it. He can carry a team deep into the playoffs all by himself. Throw in Reaves and LeBron, Marcus Smart quietly playing great, Rui Hachimura banging 44% of his 3s, a gifted adjustment coach in JJ Redick (who is a legitimate asset in playoff basketball), an energized defense, three premium closers come clutch time, and yes, you have to give the Lakers at least a puncher’s chance regardless of who they wind up playing, in what round, in the playoffs.
But even more than that, the Lakers are now totally set up for the future in a way they never were before Dončić landed in their lap. Having a 27-year-old Luka is roughly like having a 27-year-old LeBron. You’re penciled in as a threat on the strength of your star alone. That’s before you even factor in Reaves, who is turning just 28 in May, and the some $50-plus million in cap space the Lakers project to have this summer, plus five first-round draft picks over the next seven years.
That’s a hell of a foundation on which to build something both spectacular and sustainable around Dončić, who, it must be repeated, never should’ve been traded to them in the first place. It was a gift. One that will keep on giving to the Lakers for years to come.
