How will their Indian Wells performances affect Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner?
The state of play among the Top 2 has obviously shifted. Two weeks ago, Alcaraz was undefeated in 2026 and flying as high as he ever has. Sinner, by contrast, had a couple of semifinal losses to show for his season. Another win for Alcaraz and we might have been talking about him as a dominant force by himself, rather than these two as a pair.
But Sinner’s first title in IW, and first of 2026, puts their rivalry at center stage again. He didn’t drop a set, and finished with a furious clutch run of points to finish the final.
Each has won Miami once—Alcaraz in 2022, Sinner in 2024. Neither was a factor last year—Sinner was suspended, and Alcaraz lost to David Goffin in the second round, a result that would mark the low point of his season. The courts, assuming they’re still faster than in IW, are somewhat better-suited for Sinner, who has been to three finals here.
How about their draws? I’ll start by saying that neither has to worry about facing Novak Djokovic, who is not playing. After that, their paths to the finals seem equally manageable, with one early exception.
That exception is Alcaraz’s possible opening-match clash with Joao Fonseca. This is a fearsome-forehand showdown that fans have been waiting for. Fonseca, who pushed Sinner to two tiebreakers in Indian Wells, will have his green-and-gold army with him as well. But he has to get past Fabian Marozsan first.
From there, Alcaraz might face Seb Korda, Karen Kachanov, and either Taylor Fritz, Jack Draper, or Casper Ruud in the quarters.
At the bottom of the draw, Sinner avoids any obvious early-round landmines. His path could take him through the always-feisty Damir Dzumhur in the second round, Corentin Moutet in the third, Cam Norrie or Andrey Rublev in the fourth, and either Jakub Mensik, Frances Tiafoe, or Felix Auger Aliassime in the quarters.
Indian Wells runner-up Daniil Medvedev, who could be called a de facto third seed, is in Sinner’s half.
