The Indiana Pacers advanced to the NBA Finals last season, but they are off to a 1-10 start this year and are dealing with numerous injuries. Star guards Tyrese Haliburton and Bennedict Mathurin are both sidelined, leaving Indiana without two of its best players. Forward Pascal Siakam leads Indiana’s healthy players with 24.6 points, 7.6 rebounds and 5.6 assists per game. However, he has only gone over five assists twice in his last seven appearances, so SportsLine’s Inside the Lines team and proven computer model are taking Siakam to go Under 4.5 assists at plus-money on Thursday night against Phoenix. You can find even more best bets at the Inside the Lines live blog.
Targeting NBA player props will be a popular way to approach Thursday’s NBA betting at online sports betting sites. With NBA odds available for almost every player in every game at sportsbooks, the ITL team’s model, which simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, can help you find value to add to your Thursday NBA picks at various sportsbooks. They can also help new users take advantage of sportsbook promos like the latest Underdog Fantasy promo code CBSSPORTS2 to claim $100 in bonus entries with a $5 entry:
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past eight seasons. The model enters Week 4 of the 2025-26 NBA season on a sizzling 26-13 roll on top-rated NBA spread picks dating back to last season. Anyone following its NBA betting advice at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.
Best NBA player prop picks on Thursday:
- Dyson Daniels, Hawks, Under 14.5 points (-120)
- Donovan Mitchell, Cavaliers, Under 3.5 made 3-pointers (+108)
- Pascal Siakam, Pacers, Under 4.5 assists (+114)
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Dyson Daniels, Hawks, Under 14.5 points (-120)
“It should come as no surprise that the Hawks are a much better team without Trae Young than with him. They are 6-2 without Young including the game where he left early. Initially, Dyson Daniels saw a significant bump in scoring putting up 18 points in 3 straight games. But the high scoring was due to unsustainably high shooting percentages (24/34, 70.5% shooting over 3 games),” SportsLine senior data analyst Stephen Oh said. “This is not a fade on the player. He is playing well, he is just not looking to score like he did for stretches last season. This line is based on his ’24-25 average of 14.1 points and 56% under 14.5 rate…our projection of 12.5 is much higher than what he’s been averaging. If you go back to the end of last season the Under is on a 13-3 run.”
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Donovan Mitchell, Cavaliers, Under 3.5 made 3-pointers (+108)
“This line is fair based on his 3.5 home average with 45.5% under 3.5 since last season. I am selling high on Mitchell who comes in 5-1 over this line. Last season he averaged 3 (2-1 under) vs Toronto and other guards who average 3+ made 3pt shots averaged 3.4 on their home court vs Toronto vs 4.1 at Toronto,” Oh said. “…The Cavs don’t need Mitchell to carry them and he’s in a bit of a shooting slump (28/72, 38.8% from the field last 3 games). I don’t see him forcing it from three vs the long, athletic wings that the Raptors have and with so many teammates stepping up when he can take these guys off the dribble and put up plenty efficient points.”
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Pascal Siakam, Pacers, Under 4.5 assists (+114)
“Siakam may have 10 assist opportunities passing out to open shooters, but the Pacers are shooting like garbage from 3pt range with a dead last 29.6% team 3pt%. The Suns are in the top half of the league defending the three and are especially good at home allowing 33% 3pt shooting. The Suns are on a back-to-back so that could result in tired legs but these younger, defensive oriented Suns can handle the assignment much better than last year’s debacle of a team,” Oh said. “This line does accurately reflect Siakam’s higher assist average this season vs last (5.6 vs 3.4) with Halliburton out. But T.J. McConnell did make his return the other night. He should alleviate some of the play-making pressure on Siakam and let him focus on his own scoring which is far more efficient than the rest of the team. At the same time, McConnell’s offense often comes off his own aggressive penetration and mid-range pullups which usually do not generate good assist opportunities for teammates.”
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Want more Thursday NBA picks?
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NBA expert Matt Severance is 25-17 (+579.5) in his first 42 NBA picks this season. See his latest NBA predictions here.
