Breaking a long-term trend, carbon dioxide emissions from India’s electricity sector in the first half of this year have showed a marginal decline compared to the same period last year, a new analysis has revealed.
This is the first time that emissions from any sector in India over half-a-year period have dropped, outside of the Covid years. The relatively milder summer temperatures and good monsoon rainfall were an important contributory factor.
The analysis by Bengaluru-based Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) for Carbon Brief, a UK-based climate-focussed publication, shows that the CO2 emissions from India’s electricity sector between January and June this year dropped 1 per cent compared to the first half of 2024.
This is significant because the electricity sector is the largest contributor to India’s greenhouse gas emissions, accounting for almost 40 per cent of the country’s annual emissions. India’s emissions, the third largest in the world, have been rising steadily over the years, in sync with its expanding economy, and this is the first time that a drop has been witnessed even at the sectoral level.
A flattening in India’s emissions trajectory is likely to have a global impact.
The analysis suggests that emissions from India’s electricity sector may peak by 2030, much earlier than previously expected. New capacity additions in non-fossil fuel based electricity, like renewables, nuclear and hydro, are likely to outpace the growth in power demand by that time. This means that India may not need to deploy additional coal-based electricity to meet the increase in electricity demand.
The growing ability of solar and wind to meet the peak demands in electricity with the help of storage could result in flat-lining coal-powered electricity generation, and the emissions associated with it, the analysis said.
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The 1 per cent drop in power sector emissions in the first half of this year could be attributed to lower electricity demand and faster growth in generation of clean electricity. The drop in electricity demand was mainly because the summer season this year was relatively less hot compared to 2024. There were relatively few heatwave periods, and not as intense as last year. Also, there was plentiful rainfall in the pre-monsoon March-May period, about 30 per cent higher than normal.
Relatively lower temperatures and higher rainfall reduced the need for air-conditioning, which accounts for about 10 per cent of India’s electricity demand during the summer months.
But, as Anubha Aggarwal, India analyst at CREA and a co-author of the analysis, pointed out, the drop in emissions was caused by some structural factors as well, most notably the accelerated deployment of renewable energy. India added 25.1 GW of clean electricity capacity in the first half of this year, about 70 per cent more than it did last year, which itself was a record at that time. This had a direct impact on electricity generation as well.
The analysis found that the total power generation in the first half of the year increased by 9 TWh (Terawatt hour), compared to the corresponding period last year. But fossil fuel-based generation, mainly from coal, fell by 29 TWh, while generation from solar increased by 17 TWh, and that from wind rose by 9 TWh. Hydropower generation increased by 9 TWh while nuclear rose by 3 TWh. This higher generation from cleaner sources contributed to the drop in emissions.
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On Tuesday, Pralhad Joshi, Minister for New and Renewable Energy, said that India installed 23 GW of non-fossil fuel electricity capacity in the first five months of this fiscal (April to August) and this was likely to get doubled in the remaining part of the year.
“The ongoing clean energy expansion over the next five years is expected to shift the structural trend in an important way, likely leading to a peak in the power sector emissions by then,” Aggarwal said.
India is targeting 500 GW of installed non-fossil electricity capacity by 2030, of which 252 GW has already been achieved. Projects already in the pipeline, if executed before 2030, were enough to take the installed capacity to 482 GW, the analysis said.
CREA has used data from various government agencies to carry out its analysis. India’s official emissions data, both sectoral as well as overall, is released by the government from time to time, usually pertaining to a period four to five years in the past. The last official emissions data was released in December last year, and it contained greenhouse gas inventory for 2020.
