Sinner has been No. 1 for the last 65 weeks. He’s the defending champion, and has won the last three hard-court majors. He beat Alcaraz in their most recent completed match, in the Wimbledon final. He’s 20-8 in finals, and 17-6 in hard-court finals.
Alcaraz, meanwhile, leads their head-to-head 9-5, and is 6-2 against him on hard courts (though one of those wins was in Cincinnati, where Sinner retired after five games). Alcaraz has won 45 of his last 47 matches, improved his serve over the summer, and seems entirely confident in his baseline attack on the courts in New York.
Sinner also has a history of bringing out the best in Alcaraz. In their matches, the Spaniard tends to dial in and find a way to reach his top level by the end. We saw him do it in Beijing last fall and at Roland Garros this spring, in matches that ended in final-set tiebreakers.
But that changed at Wimbledon. In that final, it was Sinner who took Alcaraz’s best in the early going, and raised his level beyond it. It was Sinner who hit more winners, who came to net twice as often, who was superior in the front court and back court.
