For much of the last decade and a half, Novak Djokovic has entered Grand Slam fortnights with the expectation of returning with silverware.
Even during his lean patch that has now lasted eight Majors and two years, the Serb has been expected to win a history-making, record-extending 25th Major.
But even the eternal Djokovic fans would have had their concerns for the 38-year-old as he arrived in New York in a year where he has reached the semifinals in each of the three Majors so far, but also proved to be distinctly third-best, roundly humbled on the big stage by the younger generation and forced to deal with the reality of an ageing body.
The quest for No. 25 has gone from a ‘when’ to an ‘if’.
“I don’t know. I don’t have any injury or anything. I just struggled a lot to stay in long exchanges and recover after points,” he said after beating promising American teenager Learner Tien in straight sets in his tournament opener.
The outlook was not too positive after his second-round win either.
“Not that great, to be honest,” Djokovic said about his tennis after fighting off a spirited challenge from American qualifier Zachary Svajda for a 6-7(5), 6-3, 6-3, 6-1 win on Wednesday. “I was not really happy with my tennis in the first part of the match.”
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After taking on two new challengers, up next is a familiar foe. Djokovic will take on Cameron Norrie in the third round late on Friday, a match-up that he has aced, beating the left-handed Briton in each of their last six contests, including at the French Open earlier this year. But right now, Djokovic’s issues are on his own side of the net.
The Serb went Major-less in 2024 but won the prized Olympic gold, after which he began searching for the edge to return to the summit of men’s tennis. His best tennis has not entirely eluded him; it has shown up in big moments, especially evident during two excellent quarterfinal victories in Melbourne and Paris – over Carlos Alcaraz and Alexander Zverev respectively.
But Djokovic is having to come to terms with just how physically draining it is to win seven best-of-five-sets matches in two weeks at his age. He retired due to injury from the semifinals at the Australian Open and faced problems at Wimbledon too. He was also shown his place by Jannik Sinner, who delivered two clinics against him in their semifinals at Roland Garros and SW19.
Lacking edge
While the straight-sets scoreline was harsh on the Serb in Paris, where Sinner had to produce his best to play through him, the Italian absolutely eviscerated him at Wimbledon: a combination of Djokovic’s physical and mental fatigue and Sinner’s relentless, brutal ball-striking. After the match, the Serb made no excuses, casting doubt over whether he would ever be able to reach the same heights at Major level again.
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And so he arrived in New York, six weeks later without a single match under his belt – at 38, he prefers to take more breaks, spend some family time, and not engage with the bloated tennis calendar he disapproves of – chasing some kind of spark.
In his dour opening matches at Flushing Meadows, Djokovic didn’t find it, often making a flurry of errors, looking slow, and doubling up for breath after long-ish rallies. In the first round, he was pushed far enough, especially in the 80-minute second set, and looked decisively off-colour. The game would not improve in the second match, with Svajda taking advantage of his lapses in a way Tien could not.
The American went toe-to-toe with Djokovic from the baseline and outplayed him for the first half of the match, even taking the first set (in which Djokovic made 14 unforced errors) to a tie-breaker and winning it. He led by a break in the third set too, but Djokovic improved incrementally, and Svajda himself faced a left leg injury, without which he was likely to make much more of a match of it. Djokovic left with a win but remained unhappy.
The Serb’s problem is two-fold. Instead of having evident weapons, he is a master at winning in the margins, through superior decision-making, shot selection, rally tolerance and serving consistency. This is how he wins even when he is not at his best. But when the sharpness evades him – through physical fatigue, a lack of mental motivation or a combination of all factors – the cracks start to appear.
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Where he goes from here is a mystery. He will continue to notch wins, ugly if they have to be, but at the business end of the Majors, against opponents who are proving to be worth the hype, he will need to hit top gear. Time is running out for him to find it.
