The 2025 NBA playoffs tip off on Saturday, with a rematch of last year’s first round featured in the opening game of the day. The 4-seed Indiana Pacers (50-32) will host the 5-seed Milwaukee Bucks (48-34), after the Pacers defeated the Bucks in six games in last season’s first-round series. However, Giannis Antetokounmpo was injured and didn’t play in that series, and the Bucks won three of four matchups with the Pacers in the 2024-25 NBA regular season. Damian Lillard (blood clot) could return at some point in the postseason but is out for Game 1.
Tipoff is at 1 p.m. ET from Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, where the home team is 29-12. Indiana is a 5.5-point favorite in the latest Pacers vs. Bucks odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is 224.5. Before entering any Bucks vs. Pacers picks, make sure to check out the NBA predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine expert Matt Severance.
Severance is a well-connected writer and high-volume handicapper who has worked in the industry since 2005. After joining SportsLine, Matt quickly established himself as a top expert in multiple sports. Over the past three NBA seasons, he has returned $4,452 for $100 bettors on all NBA picks and he enters this matchup on a 143-83-1 roll (+2563.75) on NBA picks. Anybody following him could have seen huge returns.
Now, Severance has analyzed Milwaukee vs. Indiana and just revealed his coveted NBA picks and betting predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see his picks. Here are several NBA odds and NBA betting lines for Bucks vs. Pacers:
- Pacers vs. Bucks spread: Indiana -5.5 at DraftKings
- Pacers vs. Bucks over/under: 224.5 points
- Pacers vs. Bucks money line: Pacers -225, Bucks +185
- MIL: The Bucks went 43-39-1 against the spread (ATS) in the regular season
- IND: The Pacers went 38-43-1 versus the line in the regular season
- Pacers vs. Bucks picks: See picks at SportsLine
- Pacers vs. Bucks streaming: FuboTV (Try for free)
Why the Bucks can cover
Milwaukee has several things in its favor, starting with the fact that no NBA team has a longer active win streak than the Bucks’ eight victories in a row. The team has covered in seven of those eight contests as it is peaking at just the right time. Antetokounmpo has embraced the role of being a point forward with Lillard sidelined, as the two-time MVP has four triple-doubles over his last five games. He is averaging 30.8 points, 13.4 rebounds and 12 assists over that stretch, while converting 59.6% of his field goal attempts.
Another factor in the Bucks’ favor is that they went 3-1 versus Indiana in the regular season, also covering in three of four meetings. The one loss comes with a bit of a caveat as it was on a controversial four-point play by Tyrese Haliburton with three seconds remaining, giving Indiana a one-point victory. After being injured in the last two postseasons, and playing in just two of Milwaukee’s last 11 playoff games, Antetokounmpo will be highly motivated to remind everyone of his All-NBA excellence once the 2025 NBA playoffs tip off. See which team to back at SportsLine.
Why the Pacers can cover
The Pacers counter Milwaukee’s eight-game win streak with a 7-1 mark, themselves, over their last eight contests. Their one loss came in the penultimate regular season game in which the team sat Haliburton, Pascal Siakam and Myles Turner, amongst others. Indiana getting home-court advantage for this series, and Game 1, is huge as few others embrace their friendly confines as much as the Pacers. Despite being the 4-seed in the East, Indiana had the second-best home record in the conference, as its 29-12 home mark even topped the 28-13 home record for Boston.
Rick Carlisle’s squad is one that rises to the occasion against the league’s best teams as the Pacers covered in 60% of games versus teams that won over 55% of their games. Meanwhile, Milwaukee is just 12-17 ATS (41%) against teams that have a winning clip over 55%. The Bucks could struggle to keep up with Indiana’s high-octane offense that has top 10 rankings in points per game and offensive rating as Milwaukee doesn’t generate extra offensive possessions. The Bucks rank dead last in offensive rebounds and fourth-worst in steals, which could limit additional scoring opportunities. See which team to back at SportsLine.
How to make Bucks vs. Pacers picks
Now Severance has locked in another confident against-the-spread pick for Pacers vs. Bucks. He is leaning Over on the total, but he knows a crucial X-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back. You absolutely need to see what it is before locking in any picks of your own.
So who wins Bucks vs. Pacers, and what X-factor makes one side of the spread hit hard? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Pacers vs. Bucks spread to jump on, all from the expert that has returned over $4,400 on his NBA picks over the past three seasons, and find out.
