We have reached my favorite part of the sports calendar. The NFL and college football seasons are in full roar, it’s the tail end of the MLB playoffs, the NHL is nearly two weeks into its season, college basketball is right around the corner and the NBA tips off Tuesday.
The opening doubleheader is Houston at defending NBA champion Oklahoma City, which will raise its first title banner, and the nightcap is Golden State at the Los Angeles Lakers. That has lost a ton of luster because LeBron James, who will be 41 in December, will miss what could be his final opening night and is without an official timetable to return due to sciatica. James won’t even be re-evaluated until after the first week or two of the season. This could be the final year of the legendary James’ career, as he is playing on an expiring contract for the first time.
So while I’ll give you some 2025-26 NBA predictions here, you won’t see any Lakers-related picks until I have some clarity on James. Do I think they have any shot at a championship? Nope. And I’d probably lean Under 48.5 wins (-145) because the team will likely limit James a lot this year to make sure he’s healthy for the playoffs.
These odds below are from a mix of DraftKings and FanDuel, whichever gave me a better price.
NBA win total pick: Raptors Over 37.5 wins (-145)
This play is partly because the entire Eastern Conference looks so weak this season, but I believe the Raptors are on the rise again, led by Scottie Barnes. They have largely been irrelevant since a 48-win season in 2021-22, which was their last trip to the playoffs.
Last year, Toronto won just 30 games, but that was part of the rebuild kickstarted the season before with trades of Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby. The team was also hammered by injuries. The Raptors were the in top 10 in games missed due to injury or illness. The only player who got into more than 65 games was then-rookie guard Jamal Shead.
He was part of a really solid rookie class alongside Ja’Kobe Walter, Jonathan Mogbo and Jamison Battle. And now this season they’ve added Collin Murray-Boyles, the No. 9 overall pick in this year’s draft, as well as former All-Star Brandon Ingram. He was acquired around last year’s trade deadline from New Orleans but never ended up playing for Toronto due to injury. I also think Toronto at +105 to reach the Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament is good value.
Eastern Conference champion pick: Knicks (+255)
Either the Knicks, Cavaliers or Magic seem likely to win the incredibly watered-down East this season. Boston gutted its roster and is missing Jayson Tatum due to injury. Milwaukee lost Damian Lillard. Defending conference champion Indiana will not have its best player in Tyrese Haliburton. I never trust Joel Embiid and the Sixers.
I really like Orlando after it traded for Desmond Bane in the offseason, but it’s a young team that hasn’t learned to win in the playoffs yet. I favor the Knicks simply because I think they finish with the East’s best regular-season mark, and thus the playoffs would go through Madison Square Garden. Cleveland, which had the East’s best mark last year, will be missing Darius Garland and Max Strus to start the season due to injury.
Western Conference champion pick: Thunder (+165)
The Thunder sure look like a blossoming dynasty, but so did the Celtics after they won the 2024 title. Things can go wrong. But OKC is so young and in such good shape contract-wise with its three best players (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren) all now signed to long-term deals. The rest of the league should be very afraid.
I would have considered Houston here after the Rockets traded for Kevin Durant, but the Rockets’ odds then rose to the current number +1100 when they lost starting point guard Fred VanVleet to a season-ending torn ACL in September. The former NBA champion helped lead Houston’s turnaround from lottery team to playoff contender over the past two seasons.
Denver (+600) had a good offseason and might have one more run in it, but the Thunder are still miles deeper and have Holmgren and fellow 7-footer Isaiah Hartenstein to deal with Nikola Jokic in a possible playoff matchup. The Thunder blew out the Nuggets in Game 7 of the 2025 Western Conference semifinals.
NBA champion pick: Oklahoma City (+245)
I don’t generally like betting teams in any major sport to repeat, much less at such a cheap price. Plus, champions have a bulls-eye on their backs. I will be playing Under 63.5 wins for the Thunder (-160 at DK).
But short of injuries, I don’t really see a club beating OKC in a long series. Holmgren has proven himself a bit of an injury risk, and Williams continues to recover from surgery on his right wrist after playing the entire postseason with torn ligaments, but injuries generally hit older teams the hardest, and OKC is still one of the league’s youngest. That’s what made last season’s title even more impressive. Last year, the Thunder had an average age of 25.6 years to become second-youngest championship team in league history, older than only the 1976-77 Portland Trail Blazers led by Bill Walton.
Oklahoma City over New York in the Finals is a +1200 second-favorite on the exact result board after OKC over Cleveland at +1100.
